Intelligence Collection and Analysis
Core concepts
Intelligence work moves through a cycle: direction (requirements), collection, processing, analysis, dissemination, and feedback. Know the collection disciplines and their limits - HUMINT (source reliability and motivation), SIGINT, IMINT/GEOINT, OSINT (open sources, verification burden), and TECHINT. The intelligence cycle is iterative, not linear; new reporting reopens requirements.
Analytic tradecraft
Expect questions on the intelligence cycle stages, source reliability versus information credibility (the two-axis NATO-style A–F/1–6 grading), and structured analytic techniques (ACH, key assumptions check, devil's advocacy, red teaming). Distinguish raw reporting from finished intelligence, and tactical from strategic products.
Traps to watch
- Confusing collection with analysis: collection gathers; analysis interprets and assigns meaning.
- Treating a single source as corroboration - corroboration requires independent sources.
- Mistaking confidence (analytic certainty) for likelihood (probability of an event); they are separate judgments.
- Forgetting dissemination is part of the cycle; intelligence that never reaches the decision-maker has no value.
Rule of thumb
Grade a source by reliability (track record) and its information by credibility (plausibility and corroboration) separately. A usually-reliable source can still pass a dubious report.
Worked example
A walk-in claims a facility is producing weapons. He is a first-time source (low reliability) but his details match overhead imagery and two intercepts (high credibility). Correct handling: report as low-reliability/high-credibility, seek corroboration, and avoid treating it as confirmed fact.