Critical Thinking and Problem Solving
Core concepts
Critical thinking is the disciplined evaluation of evidence and reasoning. Know common cognitive biases - confirmation bias, anchoring, availability heuristic, hindsight bias, groupthink, and mirror-imaging (assuming others think like you). Understand logical fallacies, the difference between correlation and causation, and the value of structured analytic techniques to counter bias.
Problem-solving method
Expect questions on a structured approach: define the problem, gather and weigh evidence, generate and test hypotheses, consider alternatives, decide, and review. Know Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) - evaluating evidence against multiple hypotheses and seeking disconfirming evidence rather than confirming a favored one.
Traps to watch
- Seeking only evidence that supports a preferred conclusion (confirmation bias).
- Anchoring on the first piece of information received.
- Treating absence of evidence as evidence of absence.
- Overconfidence in a single hypothesis; failing to consider alternatives.
- Confusing correlation with causation.
Rule of thumb
Ask "What would change my mind?" and actively look for disconfirming evidence. A judgment you cannot falsify is a belief, not an assessment.
Worked example
Two hypotheses explain a facility's activity: legitimate production vs. concealment. Rather than gathering support for one, list evidence and ask which items discriminate between them; weight disconfirming evidence heavily. This is ACH applied - seeking the hypothesis that best survives attempts to disprove it.