Population change in an ageing coastal town
A coastal town of 48,000 people has seen its median age rise from 41 to 47 in fifteen years. Net migration of people aged 18–29 is −900 per year, while net migration of people aged 60+ is +700 per year. The natural increase rate has fallen to −0.3% per year. The local hospital reports rising demand for aged care beds, but the only large employer, a food-processing plant, is closing next year and will shed 1,200 jobs. The council has proposed two options: (A) rezone coastal land for retirement villages and market the town as a retirement destination; (B) fund a business incubator and childcare centre to attract young families. Census data show 28% of dwellings are unoccupied for more than six months of the year.
1. Calculate the approximate annual total population change from the migration figures and natural increase, and explain what this implies for the council's two options.
Read the worked answer
Net migration = −900 + 700 = −200 per year. Natural increase = −0.3% of 48,000 ≈ −144 per year. Total change ≈ −344 per year, so the town is slowly shrinking even though it is gaining older residents. The key insight is that the town is not simply 'growing' or 'declining'-it is restructuring by age. Option A accelerates the 60+ inflow and may stabilise numbers, but it deepens age dependency and does little for the 1,200 workers losing jobs, who are mostly of working age. Option B addresses the youth outflow but cannot quickly offset a natural decrease that is already negative; attracting young families takes years and requires jobs the plant closure removes. A judgement answer should note that neither option reverses the demographic trajectory in the short term, and that the 28% unoccupied dwellings suggest a housing supply problem rather than a simple demand problem.
2. A councillor argues that 'population decline is the town's biggest problem'. Evaluate this claim using the data.
Read the worked answer
The claim is only partly supported. Total change of about −344 per year is modest for a town of 48,000 (roughly 0.7%), so absolute decline is not dramatic. The more serious issue is compositional: a median age of 47, a large 60+ inflow and a youth outflow of 900 per year create a shrinking labour force and rising dependency. The plant closure of 1,200 jobs is a larger immediate shock than the annual population change. The 28% unoccupied dwellings indicate that housing is not matched to need-underoccupancy and holiday homes reduce the stock available to residents. A strong answer distinguishes between rate of change, structure of the population, and economic shocks, and concludes that age-structure change and employment loss are more pressing than the headline population number.
3. Explain how the concept of demographic transition could be misapplied to this town.
Read the worked answer
Demographic transition is a national-scale model describing shifts from high to low birth and death rates. Applying it directly to a town of 48,000 is a scale error: the town's negative natural increase is driven by age structure (few women of childbearing age) rather than by a stage of national development. Migration, not fertility, dominates local change here-net migration of −200 per year versus natural increase of −144. A model answer should note that local populations are open systems shaped by commuting, retirement migration and housing markets, so transition stages do not map neatly onto them. Using the model as description rather than explanation risks missing the policy levers-childcare, jobs, housing-that actually operate at local scale.