Marketing Information, Research and Demand Forecasting
The information system
A marketing information system (MIS) has three streams: internal records, marketing intelligence and marketing research. Know the research process: define the problem and objectives, develop the research plan, collect data, analyse, and present findings. Distinguish secondary data (already collected, cheaper, may be dated or mismatched) from primary data (collected for the problem).
Research designs and methods
- Exploratory - qualitative, clarifies the problem (focus groups, depth interviews).
- Descriptive - surveys, observation; who, what, when, where, how.
- Causal - experiments; tests cause and effect.
Sampling vocabulary is examined: population, sampling frame, probability (simple random, stratified, cluster) versus non-probability (convenience, judgement, quota). Understand questionnaire pitfalls - leading, double-barrelled and ambiguous questions - and the difference between validity and reliability.
Demand forecasting
Know qualitative methods (sales-force composite, jury of executive opinion, Delphi, buyer intention surveys) and quantitative methods (moving average, exponential smoothing, regression, time-series decomposition). Match the method to data availability and horizon.
Traps in questions
- Calling a focus group descriptive - it is usually exploratory.
- Using a survey to prove causation; only experiments do that.
- Confusing reliability (consistency) with validity (measures the right thing).
- Choosing Delphi when fast, cheap forecasts are needed - it is iterative and slow.
- Ignoring sample bias when respondents self-select.
Worked example
A firm wants to know whether a 10% price cut raises volume. Options: survey (descriptive, weak on causation), focus group (exploratory), or a controlled test in matched stores (causal experiment). The correct choice is the experiment.
Rule of thumb
Problem unclear → exploratory; problem clear, describe it → descriptive; need cause and effect → causal.