Family Island School Closure
A Family Island school has 48 pupils, down from 120 twenty years ago. The island's population has fallen from 900 to 430 as young people move to Nassau and Florida for work. The school costs more per pupil than a Nassau school because it needs a full staff, a bus and a generator. The government proposes closing it and sending pupils by ferry to a school on a neighbouring island, a 50-minute crossing each way. Parents say younger children would be exhausted, and that the school is the island's main employer and social centre. Some families say they would leave the island if the school closed, which would reduce the population further. The government must decide.
1. Explain how the island's population change has produced this problem.
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The population fell from 900 to 430, a loss of about 52%, and the school fell from 120 to 48 pupils, a loss of 60%. The cause is out-migration of young adults, who leave for education and jobs in Nassau and Florida. When young adults leave, fewer children are born on the island, so the school shrinks further; the population also ages, which raises the cost of health care and lowers the number of workers. The school's cost per pupil rises because fixed costs such as the bus, generator and a full staff are spread over fewer children. This is a cycle: fewer pupils means higher costs, which makes the school a target for closure, and closure encourages more families to leave. The judgement should recognise that the school is both a result of decline and a cause of future decline.
2. Weigh the cost saving of closure against its effects, and recommend a decision.
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Closing saves the government money per pupil and may give pupils a larger school with more subjects and teachers. But the ferry crossing is 100 minutes a day, which for a five-year-old is a real cost in safety, tiredness and lost homework time, especially in bad weather when the ferry may not run. The school employs staff and is the island's social centre; closing it could push some of the 430 residents to leave, which would cut the population further and make other services, such as the clinic and shop, unviable. The savings would then be offset by higher costs elsewhere. A judgement should compare the certain saving with the likely but uncertain loss of population. A reasonable recommendation is to keep the school but share staff and resources with the neighbouring island, use remote teaching for specialist subjects, and close only if pupil numbers fall below a stated level.
3. Suggest two sources of data the government should collect before deciding, and explain what each would show.
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First, a household survey on the island asking each family whether they would leave if the school closed, and what would make them stay. This shows the likely population effect of closure, which is the key unknown in the decision. Limitation: people may say they would leave but not do so, so the answers are intentions, not facts. Second, school records and cost accounts for the past ten years, showing pupil numbers, staffing, transport and running costs per pupil. This shows whether costs are rising and how large the saving would really be. Limitation: accounts may not include the cost of the ferry service or the loss of the school's role in the community. Together the two sources address the two sides of the judgement: the money saved and the population lost.