Cocoa cooperative: replanting against price collapse
A cocoa cooperative in the Centre Region has 120 members farming 480 ha in total, an average of 4 ha each. Most trees were planted between 1972 and 1985 at 3 m × 3 m under remnant forest shade. Last season members delivered 154 tonnes, about 320 kg/ha, while extension agents put achievable yields at 700–800 kg/ha with improved material. A survey found 25% of pods lost to black pod, one tree in five dead or unproductive, and shade above 60% on a third of the area. Labour costs 2,500 FCFA a day and is scarce in January and February. The farm-gate price was 1,800 FCFA/kg in October but had fallen to 1,200 by December. A licensed buyer offers a three-year contract at 1,500 FCFA/kg for up to 200 t a year, paid monthly. Replanting with hybrid seedlings costs about 350,000 FCFA/ha and yields nothing for three to four years. Pruning plus copper-based fungicide costs about 60,000 FCFA/ha a year.
1. Using the survey figures, account for the gap between 320 kg/ha and the 700–800 kg/ha the extension service quotes.
Read the worked answer
Work from the delivered figure backwards. The arithmetic is indicative, not exact, but it shows whether one cause dominates.
Start at 320 kg/ha. One tree in five is dead or unproductive, so the surviving trees are carrying the crop of only about 80% of the stand: 320 ÷ 0.8 ≈ 400 kg/ha on the trees that remain. That recovers roughly 80 kg/ha but leaves a large gap.
Black pod destroys about 25% of the potential crop, so the harvest is about 75% of what the trees set: 400 ÷ 0.75 ≈ 533 kg/ha. This is the single largest recoverable loss and the cheapest to attack.
Heavy shade on a third of the area keeps the canopy humid, which favours black pod, and suppresses flowering. If shade costs a further fifth of potential on that third, farm average drops to roughly 470–500 kg/ha.
The remainder is harvest timing. With labour scarce and costly in January–February, ripe pods are left on the tree, where they rot or are lost to rodents; unharvested pods never appear in the delivered tonnage at all.
The conclusion matters more than the exact numbers: the gap is additive, so pruning, shade reduction, sanitation and timely harvesting should be the first move. Replanting alone would leave disease and shade in place around the young trees.
2. Should the cooperative sign the three-year contract at 1,500 FCFA/kg? Show how you would decide the volume.
Read the worked answer
The price is above today's spot price of 1,200 and below October's 1,800, so the question is not whether the price is good but how much price risk the cooperative can carry and how much crop it can physically deliver.
Case for signing: monthly payment smooths cash flow for 120 households and gives the cooperative the collateral a bank will accept for replanting loans. A floor of 1,500 is worth having when the alternative is another fall.
Case against full volume: locking 200 t is reckless. Current output is 154 t from ageing trees, and replanting 40% of the area will cut output for three to four years, perhaps to 90–110 t. A shortfall against a 200 t contract exposes the cooperative to penalties or forced buying-in at spot prices, which would destroy the benefit.
Decision rule: commit only the tonnage that would still be deliverable if replanting begins immediately. Something around 100–120 t, roughly two-thirds of present output, leaves headroom for yield loss during conversion and preserves upside if prices recover.
Also read the small print before signing: quality and moisture clauses, delivery point, who bears transport, whether the price is fixed or indexed, and what happens if the buyer defaults when world prices fall.
3. Design a replanting and income plan that avoids a three-to-four-year hole in members' cash flow.
Read the worked answer
The constraint is that hybrid seedlings earn nothing for three to four years, while members still need income and the cooperative still has to service the contract. The plan must therefore spread the cost in time and fill the gap in space.
Phase the area. Replant about one-fifth of each farm each year over five years rather than clearing 40% at once. At any moment only a fifth is out of production, which keeps tonnage close to the contract volume and spreads the 350,000 FCFA/ha cost.
Intercrop the young plots. Plantain, cassava and avocado between the seedlings give harvests in year one and shade the young cocoa. This converts the fallow years from a loss into a food and cash crop, and it is labour the household already knows.
Protect the good trees. Replant the blocks that are already 20% dead or heavily shaded; keep and rehabilitate the best stands with pruning and fungicide at 60,000 FCFA/ha/yr, which pays back far sooner than new planting.
Fund it from the contract and the group. Use monthly contract receipts plus a cooperative revolving fund for seedlings and labour, and hire a pod-breaking gang for January–February so the existing crop is not lost to the labour shortage.
Finally, keep the shade trees that remain; clear-felling to plant hybrids raises black pod and exposes young plants.