A fictional district renewal and sampling problem
A fictional neighborhood survey compares an earlier and a later year. Median advertised rent rises from 800 to 1,000 currency units per month, while the share of surveyed households with children falls from 30 to 24 percent. The surveys cover different independent samples and the later survey includes several newly built buildings not represented earlier. The exercise supplies no individual household tracking and no adjustment for dwelling size or quality. A student calls the rent increase 25 percent and concludes that every low-income family was displaced by renewal. The class must check the calculation, separate a change in sample composition from evidence of individual displacement, and propose a defensible follow-up using housing, accessibility and environmental criteria.
1. Check the relative rent change and the percentage-point change in family share.
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Rent increased by 200/800 =25 percent. The family share fell by 6 percentage points, which is a 20 percent relative decrease from 30 percent. These arithmetic descriptions do not identify the cause or prove that every original family left.
2. What evidence would help evaluate displacement and renewal?
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Track household moves and reasons, compare rents for similar dwellings, assess affordability relative to income and examine sampling coverage. Evaluate access to services, public space and environmental effects with stated criteria. Aggregate sample changes alone do not establish individual displacement or a universally successful renewal.