Evidence that conflicts with the preferred plan
A fictional preflight discussion records worsening visibility, a reduced power margin at the proposed landing site and fatigue reported by a pilot. The pilot selects one earlier favorable report and says the flight should continue because previous visits were successful. A second participant asks for the latest evidence, a review of actual performance and a decision against the relevant criteria. The exercise does not give a diagnosis, personal medical history or a specific operational clearance. It asks which evidence-handling problem is visible and why prior success is not proof of present capability. A suitable answer separates the preferred outcome from the observed conditions and recognizes that several risks can interact. It should not invent an emergency maneuver, a medical assurance or a guarantee that the site remains acceptable.
1. What bias does selective use of the favorable report illustrate?
Read the worked answer
It illustrates confirmation bias: selecting supporting information while discounting conflicting current evidence. Continued commitment to the original plan can also create plan-continuation pressure.
2. Does prior success establish the current operation is suitable?
Read the worked answer
No. Current weather, loading, performance, site conditions and pilot capability must be assessed on their actual evidence rather than inferred from previous visits.