The 5-a-Side Blitz: Testing a Break-Even Model
A parents' association is running a 5-a-side football blitz as its main fundraiser. The astro pitch costs €240 for the day, every match must be refereed at €35 per match, and trophies and medals come to €110. Sixteen teams have entered at an entry fee of €60 per team. The format is four groups of four, each group playing a full round robin of six matches, followed by two semi-finals and one final, all on the one pitch. A local shop has promised €150 sponsorship, but only if at least 16 teams take part. The association also sells tea and burgers and expects to clear €3.50 per head, with roughly 90 supporters attending on last year's form. The treasurer ran the numbers quickly, said '€60 times 16 is €960, so we are well ahead', and has already paid a €120 deposit on the pitch. Two committee members now want to know whether the day will actually make money, and what happens if entries fall short.
1. Build a full cost and revenue model for the day and calculate the surplus or shortfall.
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Step 1 – Count the matches. Group stage: 4 groups × 6 matches = 24. Knockout: 2 semi-finals + 1 final = 3. Total = 27 matches.
Step 2 – Costs.
- Pitch: €240
- Referees: 27 × €35 = €945
- Trophies and medals: €110
- Total costs: 240 + 945 + 110 = €1,295
Step 3 – Revenue.
- Entry fees: 16 × €60 = €960
- Catering: 90 × €3.50 = €315
- Sponsorship: €150 (the 16-team condition is met)
- Total revenue: 960 + 315 + 150 = €1,425
Step 4 – Result. 1,425 − 1,295 = +€130 surplus.
Step 5 – Diagnose the treasurer's error. The €960 figure compared revenue with nothing at all. Refereeing alone (€945) nearly absorbs the entire entry-fee income. The €120 deposit already paid is part of the €240 pitch cost, not an extra cost - it must not be added again. A surplus of €130 on €1,425 of revenue is a margin of about 9%, which is thin for an event that depends on good weather.
2. Only 12 teams enter. Sponsorship is lost and supporter numbers fall to 70. Model this scenario and recommend how to respond.
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Step 1 – Revised match count. Twelve teams make three groups of four: 3 × 6 = 18 group matches, plus 2 semi-finals and 1 final = 21 matches.
Step 2 – Revised costs. Pitch €240 + referees 21 × €35 = €735 + trophies €110 → €1,085.
Step 3 – Revised revenue. Entry 12 × €60 = €720; catering 70 × €3.50 = €245; sponsorship €0. Total = €965. Shortfall = 965 − 1,085 = −€120.
Step 4 – Option A: raise the fee. To break even on 12 teams: (1,085 − 245) ÷ 12 = €70 per team exactly. A fee of €85 gives 12 × 85 = €1,020 + 245 = €1,265, a surplus of €180. Risk: some teams may withdraw at the higher price, which would make things worse.
Step 5 – Option B: shorten the format. Four groups of three give 4 × 3 = 12 group matches, plus 3 knockout matches = 15 matches. Referees cost 15 × €35 = €525, so total costs = €875. Revenue stays at €965, a surplus of €90. Every match removed saves €35.
Step 6 – Recommendation. Option B, because it protects the €60 entry fee that attracted the teams in the first place and still delivers a surplus, with the fee increase held in reserve. The general lesson: the referee charge is the variable cost, so the format length, not the entry fee, is the lever to pull when numbers fall.
3. Identify two assumptions in the model and state what happens to the surplus if each fails.
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Assumption 1 – every match is refereed by a paid official. At €35 × 27 = €945 the referees are 73% of total costs. If club volunteers covered the 24 group matches and paid referees took only the 3 knockout matches, the cost becomes 3 × €35 = €105, a saving of €840, and the surplus rises from €130 to €970. This is the single biggest lever in the whole model and should be tested before anything else.
Assumption 2 – about 90 supporters attend and each clears €3.50. At 50 supporters, catering revenue falls to €175. Total revenue becomes 960 + 175 + 150 = €1,285 against €1,295 of cost - a shortfall of €10. The event turns from profit to loss on a 40-person drop in attendance, so the €3.50 margin and the supporter estimate need to be evidenced, not assumed.
Other assumptions worth naming: that all 16 teams pay and turn up (a no-show costs the same referees and pitch money); that the pitch is playable (a cancellation with the deposit already paid loses €120 plus any non-refundable trophy spend); and that the sponsorship condition of 16 teams holds. Good practice is to add a contingency line of about 10% of costs - roughly €130 - which would wipe out the entire current surplus and shows how fragile the plan is.