Shubh Sweets: Planning in a Business That Refuses to Stand Still

The owner is describing a real limitation, not a reason to abandon planning. Planning does fail when it turns rigid, when the environment shifts faster than premises can be revised, when the paperwork costs more than the decision is worth, and when a formal plan smothers the improvisation a seasonal business needs. Shubh Sweets lived every one of those last year. But the post-mortem shows the failure was the absence of planning, not planning itself: production began ten days late because nobody worked backwards from the Diwali date, and nobody had fixed a premise for the cashew price.

What planning still buys the firm:

• Direction - purchasing, production and dispatch work to one date and one quantity instead of pulling apart.
• Reduced uncertainty - a cashew contract, a leased kitchen and a labour roster turn surprises into decisions taken in September rather than in the last week.
• Control - without a standard, the GM cannot even call 22 per cent late deliveries a deviation.

The GM should concede the owner's point and answer it in the design: an annual skeleton plan (objectives, capacity, festival dates) plus a rolling 60-day operating plan revised fortnightly, with pre-agreed triggers - for example, cashew above Rs 880/kg means two SKUs switch to an alternative nut. That is a compass, not a train track, and it keeps the owner's speed.

Single-use plans are made once for a defined occasion and die with it: the Diwali production budget (11 tonnes a day for ten days), a programme for clearing old-label stock before 1 October, and the three-month lease of a rented kitchen.

Standing plans are used again and again: a labelling procedure and pre-print approval checklist that keep every future batch compliant, a standard specification and vendor-approval rule for cashew purchase, quality standards for each SKU, and a policy on overtime approval. The daily dispatch method belongs here too.

Planning premises are the assumptions the plan rests on. The GM must forecast demand SKU-wise, cashew and milk prices, labour availability during the festive fortnight, and competitor pricing. Premises must be relevant, specific, accurate and economical to collect - a cashew price band and a demand range are useful; a ten-page forecast of Chhattisgarh's GDP is waste.

The labelling rule is a known external premise, not a forecast. Treating it as certain means the plan must build around it now: one single-use plan (clear old packaging) and one standing plan (approval before any future print order). This is the difference between a premise you must respect and a forecast you may be wrong about.

Single-use plan: book three months' festive requirement of cashew on a fixed-price contract with a delivery schedule and a penalty clause. Reasoning: the exposure is concentrated in a ten-day window, so a one-off commitment matches the risk, and fixing input cost protects the festive margin against a Rs 960/kg spike. Risk: if Diwali demand disappoints, the firm is locked into stock and payment it cannot shift, and the counterparty may default when spot prices rise above the contract rate.

Standing plan: a trigger-based purchasing and product-mix policy - whenever spot cashew exceeds Rs 900/kg, kaju katli batch sizes are cut, the approved alternative-nut SKU is promoted, and a minimum 15-day buffer stock is maintained. Reasoning: this institutionalises the decision so it is not re-argued each week, and it preserves flexibility, which is exactly what the owner fears losing. Risk: rigidity - a rule written in September may be wrong in October, and promoting an alternative the retailer does not want could cost sales.

Judgement: adopt the policy first and hedge only part of the requirement by contract, say 60 per cent. The owner's real objection is to being trapped by a plan; a trigger leaves him the escape route, while the contract covers the portion of demand he is confident about.