Two villages, one budget: reading dependency ratios and seasonal migration in Jalgaon
A field-survey team working in a taluka of Jalgaon district recorded the following for two villages in the same survey month. Antur: population 4,800, of whom 1,440 are aged 0–14, 2,640 are 15–59 and 720 are 60 and above; about 1,150 men leave for five months each year to work as cane-cutters in Kolhapur; female literacy is 54% and male literacy 78%. Bori: population 3,200, with 640 aged 0–14, 2,080 aged 15–59 and 480 aged 60+; 410 workers have migrated in from other districts to a banana-packaging unit; female literacy 61%, male 80%. Both villages lie within 6 km of a primary health centre. The block development officer has funds for exactly two facilities - a maternal and child health centre and a skill-training institute for the 15–59 age group - and must place each in one of the two villages. The report must also explain why the sex ratio among 20–34-year-olds is 812 in Antur but 947 in Bori.
1. Calculate the dependency ratio for both villages and state what the figures do and do not tell you about the burden on workers in Antur.
Read the worked answer
Calculation
- Antur: (1,440 + 720) ÷ 2,640 × 100 = 2,160 ÷ 2,640 × 100 = 81.8%
- Bori: (640 + 480) ÷ 2,080 × 100 = 1,120 ÷ 2,080 × 100 = 53.8%
Interpretation. Antur carries roughly 82 dependents per 100 persons of working age against 54 in Bori, mainly because 30% of its population is under 15, not because it has more elderly people (both are 15%). A high ratio signals pressure on schools, anganwadis and child health services, and a narrow base of earners.
Limits of the measure. The ratio uses age, not work. In Antur, 1,150 of the 2,640 'working-age' men are absent for five months, so the ratio understates the real burden on the women who stay behind and manage the household and farm. Conversely, remittances mean the absent men are still earners, so the ratio overstates dependency in cash terms. Bori's ratio is lower partly because in-migrant workers are counted in the 15–59 band, not because its own young population is smaller. The honest conclusion: Antur's ratio shows a young population plus temporary labour loss, and any policy reading must add migration and remittance data to the age structure.
2. Where should the maternal and child health centre and the skill-training institute be located? Justify with the data.
Read the worked answer
Maternal and child health centre → Antur. Children aged 0–14 number 1,440 in Antur against 640 in Bori, and their share is 30% versus 20%. Antur also has lower female literacy (54%), which is associated with later and less frequent use of antenatal care, and many households are effectively women-headed for five months a year. Placing child and maternal services where the child population and the female-access gap are largest minimises travel for the group that needs it most.
Skill-training institute → Bori. Here the deciding factor is not the size of the 15–59 population (Antur's is larger in absolute terms) but the probability that a course will actually be attended and will lead to work. Antur's working-age men are physically absent for five months, so a full-time course would face chronic dropout. Bori already has a non-agricultural employer - the banana-packaging unit - plus 410 in-migrants, which means an existing demand for packaging, cold-chain, accounting and machine skills, and possible employer linkage for placements. Bori's higher female literacy (61%) also widens the pool of women who can join.
Feasible compromise: run the institute at Bori and arrange a daily bus from Antur, so that Antur's women gain access without losing the employment linkage.
3. Explain the difference in the 20–34 sex ratio (812 in Antur, 947 in Bori) without misreading it as evidence of female foeticide in that cohort.
Read the worked answer
The 20–34 cohort is precisely the group that migrates. In Antur, about 1,150 men of working age are away for five months as cane-cutters, and the survey was taken during that absence, so young men are simply not at home to be counted. The deficit is therefore a de facto, temporary absence effect, not a deficit of females at birth. Bori, which receives in-migrants of both sexes into a packaging unit, shows 947, closer to the natural expectation for that age group.
How to check this rather than assume it:
- Ask whether the survey month fell inside the migration season - a repeat count in June would probably show a very different ratio.
- Look at the child sex ratio (0–6 years), which is unaffected by adult migration. If that figure is also severely skewed, a different explanation (sex-selective practice) must be examined; if it is near normal, migration is the dominant cause.
- Cross-check with female literacy, age at marriage and the number of women recorded as 'main workers' - Antur's low female literacy suggests women are not replacing absent men in the workforce.
The teaching point: a sex ratio is a snapshot of who was present, and in a migration-prone taluka it must be interpreted with migration data before any social conclusion is drawn.