Potato Storage Decision After a Warm Harvest
Balwinder harvested 200 quintals of table potato (Kufri Pukhraj) on 20 February, when soil temperature was already high. About 60 quintals have cuts and bruising from the harvester; the rest look sound. Today's market rate is Rs 750 per quintal. A cold store 12 km away charges Rs 120 per quintal for three months plus Rs 8 per quintal transport each way. He expects 6% shrink and about 3% rottage in damaged tubers. Traders expect Rs 1,100-1,300 per quintal in June, but last June prices fell to Rs 500. Balwinder needs cash in April for wheat irrigation and his son's admission. He plans to store all 200 quintals without curing, in the same store that held a dry-rot-infected lot last season. No post-harvest fungicide has been applied, and the store does not fumigate.
1. Should he store all 200 quintals? Support your answer with a comparison of selling now and storing the sound tubers until June.
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Do not store all 200 quintals. Sort out the 60 quintals with cuts and bruising and sell them now, or within a few days after shade-drying; damaged tubers are the first to rot and will infect sound ones. Selling them at Rs 750 gives Rs 45,000. For the 140 quintals sound: 6% shrink leaves 131.6 quintals; storage costs 140 x Rs 120 = Rs 16,800 and transport 140 x Rs 16 = Rs 2,240, total Rs 19,040. At Rs 1,200, revenue is 131.6 x 1,200 = Rs 1,57,920, net about Rs 1,38,880, against Rs 1,05,000 selling now; a gain of about Rs 34,000. But the break-even June price is (1,05,000 + 19,040)/131.6, about Rs 943 per quintal. If June falls to Rs 500 as last year, he loses heavily. Since he needs cash in April and the market is uncertain, store only part of the sound lot, for example 70-100 quintals, and sell the rest now.
2. What must be done before and during storage to reduce rottage and weight loss?
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Curing: keep tubers in a shaded, ventilated place for 10-15 days at about 15-20 degrees Celsius so cuts suberise; do not wash or heap them wet. Grading: remove cut, bruised, rotten and greened tubers, because one dry-rot tuber can spread infection. Do not store this lot in the same chamber as the previous dry-rot-infected potatoes unless the store is cleaned and disinfected; ask for a different chamber or fumigation. Pre-storage: treat with a recommended post-harvest fungicide if the label permits, and dry before storage. Storage: table potato at 2-4 degrees Celsius with 90-95% relative humidity and ventilation; keep bags or crates with gaps, inspect monthly, and remove rotters. Do not mix seed and table potato. Keep the receipt and a written weight record so weight loss can be checked at removal.
3. How would you advise him on the cash need in April and the price risk?
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For cash in April: sell the 60 quintals of damaged potatoes now for about Rs 45,000, which covers the wheat irrigation and part of the admission cost; store only the graded sound lot. Ask the cold store whether it issues a negotiable receipt against which a pledge loan can be taken, so that April cash does not force a distress sale. For price risk: fix a trigger price in advance, for example sell if the June price reaches Rs 1,100-1,200, and sell in two lots rather than waiting for the top. Watch local arrivals and cold-store stocks; a late surge in arrivals can repeat last year's Rs 500. Keep the option of selling 30-40% now to lock in some money. Do not borrow at high interest to hold potatoes, because the break-even of about Rs 943 is not far below the hoped-for price.