Ageing Coast, Shrinking Workforce
A coastal district of 1.2 million people reports a total fertility rate of 1.5, life expectancy of 79 years, and a population pyramid that is narrow at the base and broad at the top. Age groups are: 0–14 = 14%, 15–59 = 62%, and 60+ = 24%. Net migration is +6,000 per year, mostly persons aged 60+ returning from abroad; out-migration of 18–30 year-olds is 4,500 per year. Female life expectancy exceeds male life expectancy by 6 years. The district has 1,100 females per 1,000 males overall, but only 940 females per 1,000 males in the 0–6 age group. Local employers report 2,200 unfilled vacancies in construction and care services. Housing rents rose 28% in three years, while school enrolment fell 11%. The state health budget is fixed, and the district must choose between expanding geriatric care and subsidising childcare.
1. Calculate the total dependency ratio and the old-age dependency ratio. Explain what each figure reveals about the district's economic burden, and why the official ratios may understate the pressure.
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Step 1 - Calculate.
Total dependency ratio = (0–14 + 60+) ÷ 15–59 × 100 = (14 + 24) ÷ 62 × 100 = 61.3 dependents per 100 working-age persons.
Old-age dependency ratio = 60+ ÷ 15–59 × 100 = 24 ÷ 62 × 100 = 38.7.
Child dependency ratio = 14 ÷ 62 × 100 = 22.6.
Step 2 - Interpret the composition. The total of 61 is moderate, but the burden is dominated by the elderly: old-age dependency (38.7) is 1.7 times child dependency (22.6). That means expenditure pressure comes from pensions, chronic care and mobility support, not from building more primary schools - consistent with the 11% fall in school enrolment.
Step 3 - Adjust for migration. The official ratio treats all 15–59 year-olds as workers. In reality, 4,500 young adults leave each year while 6,000 elderly return. The denominator shrinks and the numerator grows, so the effective dependency burden is worse than 61.3. The 2,200 unfilled vacancies in construction and care show that the working-age population is already insufficient for local demand. Therefore the district faces a care-and-labour shortage, not merely a high dependency count.
2. Identify the most likely stage of demographic transition and justify your answer with two indicators from the data.
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The district is in the late fourth stage or early fifth stage - a low-fertility, ageing population, possibly beginning to decline.
Justification 1 - Below-replacement fertility. A TFR of 1.5 is well below the replacement level of about 2.1. Sustained over time, this produces the narrow base visible in the pyramid. The 0–14 share of only 14% confirms that few births are occurring.
Justification 2 - Ageing structure. Life expectancy of 79 years and a 60+ share of 24% mean the top of the pyramid is broad. Old-age dependency (38.7) exceeds child dependency (22.6), which is the classic signature of a late-stage population.
Migration modifies but does not change the classification: returning elderly migrants raise the 60+ share, and young out-migration thins the working ages. The sex ratio at birth of 940 females per 1,000 males also points to son preference and a future marriage squeeze, while the overall ratio of 1,100 is inflated by female longevity. These are features of an ageing society, not a young one.
3. The council proposes either (a) a childcare subsidy to raise fertility or (b) geriatric care expansion plus an in-migration policy. Which is more defensible over the next 10 years? Justify using the data and note one condition for success.
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Recommendation: option (b), with a targeted housing condition.
Reason 1 - The elderly demand is already locked in. 24% of 1.2 million people are already 60+, and life expectancy is 79. Even if fertility rose immediately, those births would not enter the labour force for 15–20 years. Geriatric care addresses an existing, measurable burden; childcare subsidy addresses a future and uncertain one. TFR responses to subsidies are usually small and slow.
Reason 2 - In-migration can lower dependency quickly. The district already has 2,200 unfilled vacancies. Recruiting working-age migrants adds to the denominator and reduces the dependency ratio sooner than a baby bonus. But rents have risen 28% in three years, so without worker housing the in-migration policy will price out the very workers needed. Condition: link in-migration incentives to affordable rental housing and care-training places.
Caveat. A childcare subsidy may still be worthwhile as a long-term measure, and the 940 sex ratio at birth suggests future care workers will be scarcer than expected. But as a 10-year response to the present burden, geriatric care plus managed in-migration is more defensible.