The Meiji Land Tax Reform: Who Actually Paid?
In the 1870s a fictional district has 5,000 households. Before reform, tax was paid in rice as a share of the harvest, varying with each year's crop; after the reform, tax was a fixed money amount based on assessed land value, paid by the registered landowner regardless of harvest. In a good year the district harvest is worth 100,000 ryō; in a bad year, 60,000. The new fixed tax equals 25,000 ryō every year. Rice prices are rising over the decade. Many farmers own small plots; a few landlords own large holdings and rent to tenants.
1. Compare the farmer's risk under the old and new systems in a bad year.
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Old system: tax was a share of the harvest, so in a bad year the government's take fell with the crop - the risk was shared. New system: the tax is fixed at 25,000 ryō. In a good year that is 25% of harvest value; in a bad year it is 25,000/60,000 ≈ 42%. The farmer bears the full risk of a poor harvest. Judgement: the reform made government revenue stable and predictable (useful for budgeting modernization), but shifted harvest risk onto landowners. A small owner with one bad year could be forced to sell land to pay a tax fixed in money.
2. Rice prices rise during the decade. Who gains and who loses, and how does this explain land concentration?
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The tax is fixed in money, not rice. If rice prices rise, a farmer selling rice receives more money for the same crop while the tax stays the same, so the real burden falls - good for those who own enough land to sell a surplus. But small owners and tenants who must buy rice, or who sell little, see little gain; tenants pay rent in rice to landlords, and rising prices enrich landlords who market the surplus. Landlords with cash can buy out distressed small owners. Judgement: the reform plus rising prices favored large landowners and accelerated concentration of land among landlords, while small owners faced fixed cash obligations and harvest risk. The mechanism is the mismatch between a money tax and an income that is partly in kind and uncertain.