Burglary Tasking Brief
You are a performance analyst in a borough command unit. The monthly tasking meeting is tomorrow. You have the following data for four wards. Dwelling burglaries (last month to this month): Northgate 42 to 50; Riverside 30 to 27; Ashfield 18 to 27; Kingsmere 55 to 44. Total recorded crime, all types (last month to this month): Northgate 210 to 230; Riverside 180 to 175; Ashfield 95 to 110; Kingsmere 260 to 250. Each ward has a dedicated safer neighbourhood team of one sergeant and four constables, except Kingsmere, which has one sergeant and six constables. Officers work eight-hour shifts five days a week, but only 60% of their time is available for patrol because of abstractions. The superintendent wants targeted patrols next month in the two wards with the largest burglary increase, at six extra officer-hours per day for 30 days. The remaining overtime budget is £12,000, and overtime costs £40 per hour.
1. Calculate the percentage change in dwelling burglaries for each ward and identify the two wards with the largest increase. Explain any difference between ranking by absolute change and percentage change.
Read the worked answer
Percentage change = (this month − last month) ÷ last month × 100.
- Northgate: (50−42)/42 = 8/42 = 19.0% increase; absolute +8.
- Riverside: (27−30)/30 = −3/30 = −10.0% (decrease); absolute −3.
- Ashfield: (27−18)/18 = 9/18 = 50.0% increase; absolute +9.
- Kingsmere: (44−55)/55 = −11/55 = −20.0% (decrease); absolute −11.
The two wards with the largest increase are Ashfield (+9, 50%) and Northgate (+8, 19.0%). The ranking is the same by absolute and percentage change here, but that is not guaranteed: a small base can produce a large percentage from a modest absolute rise. Ashfield's 50% should be read alongside its small base of 18, so the absolute number still matters for demand.
2. Cost the proposed patrol plan and advise whether the budget is sufficient. What operational assumption could change your answer?
Read the worked answer
If "six extra officer-hours per day" means six hours in total across the two wards: 6 × 30 = 180 hours; 180 × £40 = £7,200. The remaining budget is £12,000, leaving £4,800, so it is affordable.
But the wording is ambiguous. If it means six extra hours per ward per day, the total is 12 × 30 = 360 hours; 360 × £40 = £14,400, which exceeds the £12,000 budget by £2,400. The plan would need to be reduced to 300 hours (£12,000 ÷ £40), for example five hours per day across both wards, or one ward only.
Other assumptions: the overtime rate may include minimum call-out or unsocial-hours enhancements; 30 days may include rest days; abstractions reduce the pool of officers available to work overtime, not the hourly rate. The answer should therefore state the ambiguity and recommend clarification before committing the budget.
3. Interpret total recorded crime alongside burglary. What cautions should you give before resources are reallocated?
Read the worked answer
Total recorded crime rose in Northgate (210→230, +20, +9.5%) and Ashfield (95→110, +15, +15.8%), and fell in Riverside (180→175, −5, −2.8%) and Kingsmere (260→250, −10, −3.8%). Ashfield is the clearest concern because both burglary and total crime rose, and burglary rose sharply. Northgate also merits attention, but its total crime rise is proportionally smaller. Riverside and Kingsmere burglary falls are encouraging but do not prove that patrols are working; one month is a short series and small numbers fluctuate.
Before reallocating resources, check whether recording practices changed; whether burglary is concentrated in a few repeat locations or repeat victims; time-of-day patterns; whether the ward teams' abstraction rates differ; and whether extra patrols would be visible, actionable and cost-effective. The reasoning is that percentage change alone should not drive deployment; harm, volume, solvability and prevention matter.