Reading a Parish Register: Plague, Famine and Population Decline
A student uses the parish register of a Maltese village, 1670–1720. Births average 40 per year. In 1676, deaths rise to 210 and births fall to 6; the register notes 'pestilenza'. In 1693, deaths rise to 120 and births to 25; a marginal note says 'fame' (famine). By 1700, births average 30 per year, not 40. The student claims: 'The 1676 plague was the main cause of the village's long-term population decline.' The register also shows 15 families 'went to Valletta' in 1680 and 10 'to Gozo' in 1695. The parish priest may have omitted stillbirths and non-Catholics. The student has no other continuous series but can consult tax records and notarial deeds.
1. How convincing is the claim that the 1676 plague was the main cause of long-term population decline? Use the data and identify alternative explanations.
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The claim is not fully convincing. The 1676 plague was a severe mortality crisis: 210 deaths against a probable baseline of about 30–35 is an excess of roughly 175–180. But a single crisis does not explain why births remained at 30 rather than 40 by 1700. The register records 15 families leaving for Valletta in 1680 and 10 for Gozo in 1695, which would reduce the reproductive population. The 1693 famine killed 120 and may have weakened survivors. Long-term decline could also reflect economic stagnation, later marriage, or underregistration. To test the claim, compare the village with neighbouring parishes: if they recovered to 40 births while this village did not, emigration or local economic factors are more likely. The plague is a major short-term cause but not proven as the main long-term cause.
2. What are the main limitations of the parish register for measuring mortality, and how would you adjust for them?
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Parish registers have several limitations: stillbirths and non-Catholics may be omitted; cause of death is often vague; migrants who died elsewhere are not recorded; and the priest may have been absent during crises, causing underregistration. The register measures baptisms and burials, not births and deaths exactly. To adjust, first compare burial totals with tax records (fires) to estimate population size. Second, use notarial deeds and migration records to estimate outward movement. Third, compare with other parishes to identify common versus local trends. Fourth, calculate excess mortality using a moving average baseline, not a single year, and state a range. Fifth, treat cause labels like 'pestilenza' and 'fame' as contemporary interpretations, not diagnoses. The result should be a cautious estimate with explicit uncertainty, not a precise number.