Critical Thinking, Logic, and Problem Solving
Critical Thinking, Logic, and Problem Solving
This domain tests how you reason from incomplete information: forming hypotheses, testing alternatives, spotting invalid inference, and avoiding the biases that produce wrongful conclusions.
Core rules and concepts
- Distinguish deduction, induction, and abduction. Deduction follows from premises; induction generalizes from observations; abduction chooses the best explanation. Investigations rely heavily on abduction, so competing hypotheses must be explicit.
- Test necessary and sufficient conditions. 'If A, then B' does not permit 'B, therefore A.' Evidence consistent with guilt may also fit innocence.
- Correlation is not causation. Base rates matter: a rare match is more probative than a common trait.
- Seek falsification. Ask what evidence would disprove your theory, then look for it.
- Guard against confirmation bias, anchoring, availability, and groupthink. Record alternative explanations and why they were rejected.
Worked example
A supply warehouse reports missing cases of batteries. Camera footage shows a forklift near the bay at 0200. That is consistent with insider theft, but also with authorized night stocking. Before naming a suspect, check the inventory system, access logs, forklift key control, and scheduled deliveries. The footage is a lead, not proof.
Traps
Affirming the consequent; post hoc reasoning, or 'after this, therefore because of this'; treating absence of evidence as proof; ignoring base rates; and letting an early suspect anchor the whole case.