Decision Making, Judgement and Risk Management
What the domain tests
Decision-making questions ask you to apply a structured model, recognise bias and manage risk explicitly rather than by feel.
Core rules
- DECIDE: Detect, Estimate, Choose, Identify, Do, Evaluate.
- Risk is likelihood × severity; use a matrix and set personal minimums before flight.
- Bias traps: plan continuation, confirmation, anchoring, availability and sunk cost. Outcome bias lets one lucky result validate a poor decision.
- ORM: identify hazards, assess risk, apply controls and supervise.
- PAVE covers Pilot, Aircraft, enVironment and External pressures; IMSAFE covers fitness.
- Good judgement includes rejecting a plan because it 'worked last time'.
Worked example
A VFR flight faces lowering ceilings after 1.5 hours, with a passenger waiting. Sunk-cost and plan-continuation bias push toward continuing. DECIDE reframes: detect the change, estimate the trend and fuel, choose diversion now, identify the alternate, do it, evaluate. The risk matrix rates continued VFR into IMC as high severity and medium likelihood; diversion is low severity.
Traps
Do not treat risk as fixed or purely subjective. Do not equate legal with safe. Do not ignore cumulative risk and external pressure. Do not let a successful outcome validate a bad process.