External Assessment: Choosing the Right Evidence
In an externally assessed investigation, a student must analyse the impacts of tourism on a destination of their choice. The student has chosen a mountain town that receives 1.2 million visitors annually against a resident population of 9,000. Collected data: visitor numbers over five years (rising 8% per year); a resident survey (n=60) in which 70% said tourism 'has made housing unaffordable'; average house price data showing a 40% rise in four years; council records showing short-term rental permits rose from 120 to 410; and a news article quoting a local business owner saying tourism 'saved the town'. The student plans to lead with the news quote because it is vivid.
1. Advise the student on how to weight these sources, and explain why the news quote should not lead the analysis.
Read the worked answer
Sources should be weighted by reliability, representativeness and relevance to the claim, not by vividness.
- Visitor numbers and council permit records are strong: they are systematic, comparable over time, and directly measure tourism pressure.
- House price data is strong for the trend but needs care: correlation with tourism is plausible but not proof of causation.
- The resident survey (n=60) is useful but limited: 60 respondents from 9,000 residents is a small, possibly self-selected sample, so the 70% figure should be reported with that caveat.
- The news quote is anecdotal and single-source; it illustrates a perspective but cannot establish an impact.
Leading with the quote would substitute emotion for evidence and mislead the reader about what the data shows. The quote can be used later to illustrate a contested perspective, but the analysis should be driven by the systematic data.
2. The student claims 'tourism has caused the housing crisis'. Assess whether the evidence supports this causal claim.
Read the worked answer
The evidence supports a plausible association but not a proven causal claim.
Supporting points:
- Short-term rental permits rose from 120 to 410, which is a direct mechanism by which tourism can reduce long-term housing supply.
- House prices rose 40% over four years while visitor numbers rose 8% per year, so the trends move together.
- 70% of surveyed residents perceive affordability as tourism-related.
Limiting points:
- Correlation is not causation; other factors (interest rates, regional migration, construction costs) are not controlled for.
- The survey is small and self-selected, so perceptions may overstate the effect.
- No data shows how many short-term rentals were previously long-term homes.
A defensible claim is: 'The evidence is consistent with tourism contributing to housing pressure, particularly through the growth of short-term rentals, but a causal conclusion would require controlling for other factors.' This is the calibrated judgement the exam expects.
3. Explain how the student should present the business owner's quote to strengthen, not weaken, the analysis.
Read the worked answer
The quote should be presented as one perspective within a contested issue, clearly labelled as a single business owner's view, not as evidence of overall impact.
A strong presentation would:
- Place it alongside the resident survey and housing data, showing that stakeholders disagree about tourism's effects.
- Note the position of the speaker (a business owner benefits from visitor spending), which helps explain the perspective.
- Use it to illustrate the economic benefits that must be weighed against housing costs, supporting a balanced judgement.
This turns a weak anecdote into a useful illustration of stakeholder perspectives, which is exactly what analysis requires. Presenting it uncritically, or leading with it, would weaken the investigation by implying anecdote outweighs systematic data.