Planning and Forecasting
Scope and schedule
Planning creates the scope baseline: scope statement, WBS, and WBS dictionary. Decompose work until packages can be estimated and assigned. Scheduling means defining activities, sequencing dependencies, estimating durations, and developing the schedule. The critical path is the longest path through the network and determines the shortest possible project duration; its activities have zero float. Float is how long an activity can slip without delaying the project. Fast tracking overlaps activities and adds risk; crashing adds resources and usually adds cost.
Cost and reserves
Estimating methods include analogous (quick, less accurate), parametric (unit rates), and bottom-up (detailed, more accurate). Contingency reserve covers known risks; management reserve covers unknown risks and is typically controlled by the sponsor.
Forecasting with earned value
PV is planned value, EV earned value, and AC actual cost. SV = EV - PV; CV = EV - AC; SPI = EV / PV; CPI = EV / AC. Negative variances and indexes below 1 are unfavorable. A common forecast is EAC = BAC / CPI when current cost performance continues. Also know ETC = EAC - AC, VAC = BAC - EAC, and TCPI = (BAC - EV) / (BAC - AC).
Risk and supporting plans
Use the risk register, probability/impact analysis, and responses: avoid, mitigate, transfer, accept, exploit, enhance, share, and accept. Quality planning sets standards; communications planning sets who needs what and when; procurement planning addresses make-or-buy.
Traps
Do not call the critical path the shortest path. Do not use management reserve for known risks. CPI above 1 means under budget, not over budget.
Worked example
BAC = 100,000; EV = 40,000; AC = 50,000. CPI = 0.8, so EAC = 100,000 / 0.8 = 125,000. The project is over budget and forecast to finish at 125,000.