Transformation of the international order since 1990 and current conflicts
This domain asks you to describe the post-Cold-War order, its erosion and the conflicts that followed, and to weigh competing characterisations such as "liberal unipolar moment", "multipolarity" or "return of great-power competition" against evidence.
Core rules and concepts
- 1990–91 settlement: Two-Plus-Four Treaty, Charter of Paris (1990), dissolution of the Soviet Union (December 1991), Gulf War 1991 with UN mandate. The UN system appeared to work; this shaped the 1990s self-perception.
- Enlargement: EU accessions of 1995, 2004 (ten states), 2007 and 2013; NATO enlargement (1999, 2004) interpreted by Russia as a security problem; Lisbon Treaty 2009 created the High Representative and a permanent Council President.
- Wars of Yugoslav dissolution 1991–95: Srebrenica (July 1995), Dayton Agreement (November 1995); Kosovo 1999 without a UN Security Council mandate - a contested precedent for humanitarian intervention.
- After 2001: 11 September, Article 5 of the NATO treaty, Afghanistan (2001–21), Iraq 2003 and the transatlantic rift, enlargement fatigue, euro crisis 2010–12, migration of 2015.
- After 2008/2014: financial crisis, Georgia 2008, annexation of Crimea and war in Donbas 2014, full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, German "Zeitenwende" speech of 27 February 2022, NATO accessions of Sweden and Finland, sanctions and energy diversification.
- Concepts: globalisation, multilateralism versus sovereignty, hybrid warfare, responsibility to protect, multipolarity, Global South non-alignment.
Worked example
Evaluate: "The post-1990 order was a liberal unipolar moment." Reasoning: (1) Support: one superpower, expanding EU and NATO, liberal norms in the Charter of Paris and human-rights regimes, market liberalisation. (2) Limits: the UN Security Council remained veto-bound; Kosovo and Iraq bypassed it; China and Russia recovered economically and militarily; regional powers and non-state actors gained weight. (3) Judgement: "unipolar" describes capability, not universal legitimacy - the order was contested from the start, so 2014 and 2022 accelered rather than created the crisis.
Traps that cost marks
- Asserting an "end of history" as a fact instead of a contested diagnosis.
- Equating EU and NATO enlargement; they follow different logics.
- Treating 2022 as the sole break and ignoring Crimea, Georgia and 2008.
- Describing the Global South as a single actor without noting divergent interests.