The Museum Director: Evaluation vs Prediction
A reading item asks: 'What does the director suggest about visitor numbers?' The relevant paragraph reads: 'The museum's director called the return of the 12th-century manuscript "not a loss but a correction". She admitted, however, that annual visitors might fall by 5–10% once the manuscript leaves the permanent gallery.' A student answers: 'She suggests visitor numbers will not fall, because she says it is not a loss.' The mark scheme awards 1 point for 'she thinks they might fall'. The text is 300 words and the item is one of five. Department policy is to award the point only if the answer captures the concession, not just the director's positive framing. In class, the student has been taught to look for contrast words, but here she ignored 'however'. The teacher must decide whether to award the mark, explain the two propositions, and diagnose whether the problem is lexical or strategic.
1. Is the answer creditworthy? Separate the director's evaluation from her prediction and explain the work done by 'however'.
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No mark. The director makes two different moves. First, an evaluation: the return is 'not a loss but a correction', meaning she reframes the removal as a matter of justice rather than financial or curatorial damage. Second, a concession about consequences: visitors 'might fall by 5–10%'. 'However' signals that the second move contrasts with the first, so the positive framing does not cancel the predicted decline. The student has read 'not a loss' as a global denial of any downside and has ignored both the contrast word and the hedge 'might'. Full credit requires the concession: she accepts that numbers may decline. The answer also overstates certainty ('will not fall') where the text gives a possibility, so there are two reasons to withhold the point.
2. Write a one-sentence full-credit answer in no more than 20 words, in your own words.
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Model: 'She accepts that the return may reduce annual visitor numbers by 5–10%.' This is 13 words. 'Accepts' captures 'admitted' and signals concession rather than agreement; 'may reduce' captures 'might fall' and keeps the possibility; the figure 5–10% is the specific evidence. The sentence does not repeat 'not a loss', because that is the evaluation, not the answer to the question about numbers. If the rubric requires own words, this version qualifies: only 'visitor numbers' is close to the original.
3. Design one follow-up question to distinguish a lexical gap from a strategic error, and say what each response would tell you.
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Ask: 'Which word tells you the director is making a prediction, and which word contrasts it with her "not a loss" comment?' If the student can point to 'might' and 'however' but still chose the wrong answer, the problem is strategic: she is reading for the director's overall tone or her own opinion rather than for the item's target. If she cannot explain 'admitted' or 'might', or reads 'however' as addition, the problem is lexical/discourse competence. A second prompt: 'What does "admitted" tell you about how the director feels about the prediction?' A student who says 'she denied it' needs work on concessive verbs; a student who says 'she accepts something negative' but still marks the answer wrong needs a routine for separating evaluation from prediction.