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A baseline and a revised count

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A baseline and a revised count

A fictional planning note reports 80 visitors on the first day of an exhibition and 100 on the second day. The count is then corrected to 96 for the second day because four entries were duplicate records. A separate survey says that 40 percent of respondents on day one and 50 percent on day two preferred the same display, but it gives no respondent counts and does not identify a sampling method. One student reports a 20 percent rise using the original day-two count, another calls the preference difference a 10 percent increase, and another assumes all visitors completed the survey. The exercise asks for a revised count comparison and a careful statement about the preference percentages. It supplies no real exhibition statistics or evidence that a display change caused either difference.

1. Compute the corrected visitor-count increase and the preference percentage-point difference.

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Using the corrected count, the increase is 96 minus 80=16 visitors. Relative to 80, this is 16/80=20 percent. The preference rates differ by 50 minus 40=10 percentage points; their relative increase from 40 percent would be 25 percent, a different comparison.

2. Identify what cannot be inferred about the survey.

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The number of respondents and the selection method are unknown. We cannot treat the percentages as counts of all visitors, determine the combined preference rate, or infer a causal effect of the display from the supplied record.