Typhoon Decision Southeast of Waglan
At 0800 you are skipper of a 16 m sailing yacht with six persons on board, about 30 nm southeast of Waglan Island, returning to Hong Kong. The Hong Kong Observatory has issued Signal No. 3; the latest bulletin places a tropical storm about 150 nm southeast of Hong Kong, tracking west-northwest at 12 knots, with Signal No. 8 expected within 8 hours. Wind is northeast 30 knots, sea 4 m, and the barometer has fallen 4 hPa in 3 hours. Your yacht motors at 6 knots in calm water, but progress to windward is 3 knots. One crew member is seasick and dehydrated; another has a minor hand injury. Fuel is sufficient for 10 hours at 6 knots. The nearest shelter is Port Shelter, about 32 nm to the northwest; an alternative is to heave-to and ride out the storm. The VHF is working on channel 16 and 12.
1. Assess the passage plan to Port Shelter. Can you reach shelter before the worst conditions, and what factors could invalidate your estimate?
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At 6 knots the 32 nm to Port Shelter takes about 5.3 hours; at 3 knots it takes about 10.7 hours. Signal No. 8 is expected within 8 hours, so the passage is feasible only if you can average better than about 4 knots. Head seas, 4 m swell, seasickness and the injured crew could easily push you below that. Fuel for 10 hours at 6 knots is not the limiting factor; crew condition and speed are. A sensible plan is to steer for Port Shelter now, set a decision gate at 3 hours: if average speed made good is below 4 knots or conditions are worsening faster than forecast, switch to the alternative. Do not run so close to the storm that you have no escape. Keep the option of heaving-to with storm sails or a sea anchor, but recognise that heaving-to near the track of a tropical storm is not a safe plan if shelter is reachable.
2. What communications and emergency preparations would you make now?
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Make an urgency call to MRCC Hong Kong on VHF 16 (DSC 70) or Ch 12: vessel name, position, persons on board, injuries, fuel, speed, destination and intentions. Use PAN PAN, not MAYDAY, unless there is immediate grave danger. Listen for HKO updates and keep a listening watch. Prepare the yacht: lifejackets and harnesses on, lifelines rigged, storm sails ready, hatches secured, gear stowed, bilges checked, first aid and water for the seasick crew, EPIRB and flares ready. Brief the crew on the plan, the decision gate and what to do if the skipper is incapacitated. Fix the position regularly and keep a paper plot.
3. What meteorological signs would tell you the storm is closer or changing track, and how would that change your decision?
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A falling barometer, increasing swell, a backing wind and a veering wind after the centre passes are signs to watch. If the pressure continues to fall rapidly and the wind backs, the centre is approaching; if the wind veers and pressure rises, the worst may have passed. HKO radar and warnings may show a track change or acceleration. If the storm speeds up or tracks further west, the shelter may be cut off or the sea state may build faster; then turn back earlier, choose a closer shelter, or heave-to in good sea room. If the wind and sea are already too strong to make progress, do not press on into a lee shore; keep sea room and communicate.