Coastal stratus and a breakfast flight from Haifa
At 06:40 in January you are at Haifa (LLHA) planning a local VFR flight and return before 09:00. The METAR reads: LLHA 200450Z 24008KT 3000 BR BKN005 OVC012 12/11 Q1013. The TAF says: TEMPO 0500/0700 1500 BR BKN003; BECMG 0800/0900 9999 SCT015. The sea temperature is 18°C, the wind is light, and the sky is clear above 1,500 ft. Sunrise is at 06:45. Your route crosses a 1,200 ft ridge 8 NM inland, and coastal stratus often banks against the western slope. The aeroplane is VFR-only with no de-icing. You have 120 hours total, 15 hours on type. Your personal minimum is 5 km visibility and a 1,500 ft ceiling. A friend asks you to fly 25 NM inland for breakfast, returning at 09:30.
1. Interpret the weather and identify the main hazards for the proposed flight.
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The temperature/dewpoint spread is only 1°C (12/11), with 3,000 m visibility in mist and a broken cloud base at 500 ft. That is already below your personal minimum of 5 km and 1,500 ft ceiling. Light wind, sunrise and a sea temperature warmer than the air favour low stratus or radiation fog over the coastal plain. The TEMPO for 1,500 m and BKN003 is a further deterioration during the departure window. The 1,200 ft ridge inland adds a terrain hazard: the cloud may be above the coastal aerodrome but below the ridge on the western slope. Even if the destination is clear, the return route could be blocked. The main hazards are low ceiling, reduced visibility, terrain clearance and the risk of pressing on because the destination forecast looks better later.
2. Would you depart at 06:40? Give your decision and the reasoning.
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No. The current weather is below personal minima and the TEMPO is worse than the current METAR. The BECMG group only promises improvement from 08:00–09:00, not at 06:40. Departing VFR into a 500 ft broken layer with a ridge ahead relies on seeing and avoiding cloud, which is not a safe plan for a VFR-only aeroplane. The fact that the destination may be clear does not solve the departure and return problem. The correct decision is to delay until the BECMG improvement is confirmed by actual observations, or cancel the flight. If you delay, set a clear go/no-go time, obtain a fresh METAR/TAF, and identify a safe alternate route that avoids the ridge.
3. If you delay and the 08:00 METAR shows 9,000 m visibility and SCT020, what else would you check before departing?
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A single improved METAR is not enough. Check the trend and the actual cloud base on the ridge, the destination and return forecast, and whether the TEMPO period has ended. Confirm that the visibility and ceiling are above personal minima for the whole route, not just at Haifa. Check the wind and any sea-breeze development, because a strengthening onshore wind can push stratus inland later. Confirm fuel and alternate options, and brief the passenger that a return may be necessary. If the ridge is still obscured or the destination forecast is marginal, do not go. The improvement must cover the return time, not only the departure.