Proving Majority on the Floor: A Numbers Game in the Assembly
Note: the seat figures below are hypothetical and are meant only for reasoning; they are not the actual composition of any House.
A State Assembly has 90 seats. Party A holds 41, Party B 28, Party C 9 and Party D 2, and eight independents are elected; two seats are vacant because election petitions are pending. Party A forms the government with the support of Party D and six independents, and a member of Party A is the Speaker. In the monsoon session Party B moves a no-confidence motion. Before the debate ends, three MLAs of Party A submit resignation letters to the Speaker and campaign openly with Party B; the Speaker has not yet accepted the resignations. Party C declares it will abstain, and one independent withdraws support. The Governor directs the Chief Minister to prove majority on the floor within 48 hours. House rules permit voting by show of hands or by division.
1. Work out the majority mark and assess whether the government can survive the motion on the day of the vote, assuming the three resignation letters are still pending and every other member votes as indicated.
Read the worked answer
Step 1 - the mark. The statutory strength is 90, so a majority of the total membership is 46 (more than half of 90). If only filled seats are counted, the House has 88 members and the mark is 45.
Step 2 - the blocs. Government side: 41 − 3 = 38 from Party A, plus 2 of Party D, plus 6 − 1 = 5 independents = 45. Opposition: 28 from Party B plus the 3 dissenting members = 31. Party C's 9 members abstain, so their votes are neither for nor against.
Step 3 - the test. Members present and voting = 45 + 31 = 76, and a simple majority of that is 39. The government has 45, so it wins on a present-and-voting test. But against the full membership of 90 it needs 46 and has 45, so it fails an absolute-majority test by one vote.
Conclusion: survival depends on which test the Speaker applies; the government is one vote short of an absolute majority and must win over at least one abstaining or uncommitted member.
2. If the Speaker accepts the three resignations before the division, does the majority mark change? Recalculate and explain the risk to the government.
Read the worked answer
Accepted resignations remove the three from the House altogether. They cannot vote, so they drop out of both the government tally and the opposition tally.
Recalculation. Vacancies are now 3 (resigned) + 2 (already vacant) = 5, leaving an actual membership of 85. The government's support stays at 38 (Party A) + 2 (Party D) + 5 independents = 45. The opposition is only Party B with 28. The majority mark for 85 members is 43, so the government is comfortably placed at 45, and on a present-and-voting test it needs only about 37.
The catch. If the Speaker or the Governor treats the statutory strength of 90 as decisive, the mark stays at 46 and the government is still one short. So the timing of acceptance, not the arithmetic of the blocs, decides the outcome - which is why Speakers are often accused of timing resignations strategically. Accepting the resignations also triggers by-elections in three constituencies, normally within six months.
3. Set out the constitutional and procedural principles that should guide the Governor and the Speaker in this situation.
Read the worked answer
- Collective responsibility (Article 164). The Council of Ministers is responsible to the Legislative Assembly; a floor test is the accepted method of proving that a majority exists, as held in the Bommai case.
- The Governor's discretion. Where there is prima facie material showing loss of majority, the Governor may direct a floor test; the direction should be for a fixed, reasonable time and not become a device to avoid the House.
- Resignations (Article 190). A resignation takes effect when the Speaker accepts it. Until acceptance the member continues in office, which is why the three dissenters still count in the first calculation.
- Anti-defection (Tenth Schedule). Openly campaigning against the party whip may invite disqualification proceedings; disqualification and resignation are different routes with different consequences.
- Abstention is not defection. Party C's abstention costs the government votes but exposes its members to no penalty.