The Typhoon That Arrives on Transfer Day
It is 14:00 on a Tuesday in late August. A typhoon is forecast to make landfall near your region Thursday morning. You are operating a 22-guest tour: the group is currently in a mountain onsen town, with a Thursday-morning coach transfer to a coastal city, a Thursday-afternoon boat excursion, and a Friday flight home from the coastal airport for 18 of the 22 guests (four extend independently). The mountain road has one route out that is prone to landslide closure. The coach company says it can leave Wednesday evening or Friday, not Thursday. The boat operator has not cancelled. Two guests are elderly and one uses a walking stick. Your supplier contracts have standard force-majeure clauses; the coach company is asking for a decision by 18:00 today.
1. What is your decision and sequence of actions before the 18:00 deadline?
Read the worked answer
Decision: move the transfer forward to Wednesday evening (or Wednesday early afternoon if the coach can), do not wait for Thursday.
Reasoning:
- The single landslide-prone road is the critical risk. If it closes Thursday, the group is stranded in the mountains with 18 flights at risk. Leaving Wednesday removes the group from the highest-consequence location before landfall.
- The coach company's constraint (Wednesday evening or Friday) makes Wednesday the only option that preserves the Friday flights.
- The boat excursion should be treated as cancelled/at-risk; do not build the plan around it.
Sequence before 18:00:
- Confirm the Wednesday coach now, in writing, and lock the time.
- Notify all 22 guests with a clear, calm message: what changes, why, and what happens next; flag the elderly guests and walking-stick guest for assistance.
- Contact the coastal hotel for Wednesday-night arrival; confirm rooms and late check-in.
- Tell the boat operator you are cancelling the Thursday excursion and ask for their cancellation terms under force majeure.
- Check the 18 flights: note airline waiver policies likely to activate; identify rebooking options.
- Brief staff on roles and the 24/7 contact line.
Principle: act on the worst plausible outcome (road closure), not the best, and decide before the supplier deadline rather than lose the only viable slot.
2. How do you handle the four independent extenders, the supplier costs, and documentation?
Read the worked answer
Independent extenders (4 guests):
- They are outside the group transfer but still your guests while on tour. Give them the same weather briefing, the 24/7 number, and a written note of the changed plan and their options.
- Confirm their onward arrangements and whether they need help rebooking; document that you advised them.
Supplier costs and contracts:
- Invoke force majeure where the contract supports it; get cancellations and changes in writing.
- Expect some non-recoverable costs (e.g., boat deposit, one hotel night). Decide a policy: absorb reasonable costs to protect safety and reputation, and disclose clearly to guests what is and is not refundable rather than promising full refunds you cannot fund.
- Keep the coach booking even if it costs more; capacity and timing matter more than the delta.
Documentation:
- Timestamped decision log: forecast, supplier calls, guest communications, costs.
- Written guest communications (email/app) so there is a record.
- Incident-style report afterward for insurer and contract review.
Trade-off to state: you are accepting some unrecoverable cost and guest inconvenience to eliminate the stranding risk and protect 18 flights. That is the correct trade.