A Shinano Village in the 1720s: Fixed Assessment, Shrinking Households
A headman in a mountain village in Shinano keeps the records that a student is analysing. The village's assessed yield, fixed at a survey in 1640, has remained at 410 koku, although fields have been opened on the slopes since then. The annual tax has stayed near forty percent of that assessed figure. The population register records 96 households in 1700 and 81 in 1730, with many young people entered as 'working elsewhere'. Households increasingly grow tobacco and weave cloth for sale, and buy rice instead of growing all they eat. The domain, short of cash, now orders the village to deliver part of its tax in silver rather than in rice, and forbids the opening of further tax-exempt fields. The headman must decide whether to press the villagers towards more by-employment or to petition for a reduction, and must explain the likely effects of the domain's order.
1. Using the figures, explain why households fell while new fields were being opened. Separate what the register proves from what it only suggests.
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Start with what is measured: 96 households in 1700 and 81 in 1730 is a fall of 15, about sixteen percent in thirty years. The register also records many young people 'working elsewhere' - that is direct evidence of out-migration, not of death.
Why the burden rose. The assessment was frozen at 410 koku in 1640, so fields opened later were not added to the tax base, and the village's obligation stayed fixed while the number of households sharing it fell. Each remaining household therefore carried a heavier share, and the corvée demand fell on fewer shoulders.
What the register cannot show. It gives no births or deaths, so the student cannot calculate natural change; the fall could combine natural decrease in bad harvest years with migration. Nor does it show whether the migrants left permanently or seasonally.
The defensible conclusion is narrower than 'the village declined': at least part of the fall is documented migration, and the fixed assessment plus fixed tax explains why leaving was attractive and why those who stayed had to find cash.
2. Explain how the order to pay part of the tax in silver changes the village's position, and who inside the village gains or loses.
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Paying in silver forces the village into the market. Rice and cloth must be sold to obtain silver, and the sale must be made by the delivery date, so the village sells when prices are least favourable.
Price risk shifts to the village. The tax is now fixed in silver, but the harvest is not. If the rice price falls relative to silver, the same nominal tax requires more grain to be sold - the real burden rises without any change in the assessed figure.
Winners and losers. Households already earning cash from tobacco and cloth can pay more easily and may gain; households growing only grain must sell rice they would otherwise eat and may borrow. Inequality inside the village widens, and the headman becomes a broker between villagers and merchants rather than simply a collector of grain.
Why the domain chose it. The domain needs cash, not rice, for its own expenses, so the order solves the ruler's problem by transferring market risk downward. That transfer, not the amount of tax, is the real change.
3. Which option should the headman choose? Set out criteria for the judgement rather than simply naming one choice.
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A defensible answer must state what the choice is being judged against: keeping households on the land, paying the domain on time, and avoiding a collapse that makes the village unable to pay at all.
Case for by-employment. Cloth and tobacco can be produced with existing skills and bring cash that the new silver demand requires; because the assessment is fixed, extra income stays in the village. The limits are that markets and merchants are outside village control, cash cropping can draw labour from grain, and the domain may find a way to tax the new income.
Case for petitioning. The register itself is evidence: fifteen lost households and a mass of absent young people show the village cannot easily bear more. A reduction or postponement could be requested with these figures. But the domain is short of cash and has just tightened its demands, so a refusal is likely unless the village offers something, such as delivering assessed fields or accepting payment in silver.
The stronger answer combines them: petition with the register as evidence, while expanding cloth to meet the silver demand, and keep enough grain to survive a bad year.