Rs 4.0 Million for 12,000 People
The union council you are studying serves 12,000 people from 14 tube wells. Three of the wells are out of order. Each working well yields about 25,000 litres a day, and the standard used by the district for planning is 45 litres per person per day. The council has Rs 4.0 million for water this year and three proposals on the table. Repairing the three broken wells costs Rs 2.4 million in total and restores 75,000 litres a day for the whole council. A pipeline from the canal costs Rs 3.0 million and would add 150,000 litres a day, but only to the 2,500 people of the southern mohalla. Hiring tankers for the 90 hottest days costs Rs 0.8 million and adds 40,000 litres a day during that period only. A councillor tells the meeting that the pipeline is "obviously best because it delivers twice as much as the repairs".
1. Calculate the present supply per person and the shortfall against the standard. List the assumptions a careful answer must state.
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Working wells: 14 − 3 = 11. Present supply: 11 × 25,000 = 275,000 litres a day. Per person: 275,000 ÷ 12,000 ≈ 22.9 litres a day, roughly half the 45-litre standard. Demand at the standard: 12,000 × 45 = 540,000 litres a day. Shortfall: 540,000 − 275,000 = 265,000 litres a day.
Assumptions that must be stated, because the arithmetic is only as good as they are:
- Each well actually delivers its rated 25,000 litres for the full day; in practice output falls in winter and when pumps are serviced.
- Losses in pipes, standposts and illegal connections are ignored. Real losses of 20–30 per cent would raise the true shortfall to well over 300,000 litres a day, and repairs without leak control deliver less than the figures promise.
- 12,000 is the resident population, not inflated by seasonal visitors or livestock.
- The 45-litre standard covers domestic use only, not schools, mosques or the clinic.
- An average hides distribution: 22.9 litres each does not mean everyone gets 22.9, and the tail of a line may receive a fraction of it.
2. Allocate the Rs 4.0 million. Justify your choice using at least two criteria, and show the arithmetic.
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Use three criteria: litres per rupee, number of people reached, and whether the benefit lasts beyond one season.
Repairs: 75,000 litres a day for Rs 2.4 m = 31,250 litres a day per million rupees, permanent, benefiting all 12,000 people. Pipeline: 150,000 litres a day for Rs 3.0 m = 50,000 litres a day per million rupees, but concentrated on 2,500 people - 60 extra litres a day each - and it consumes three-quarters of the budget, leaving Rs 1.0 m, which is not enough to repair the wells (Rs 2.4 m). Tankers: 40,000 litres a day for Rs 0.8 m, but only for 90 days and with high recurring cost.
Allocation: repairs plus tankers = Rs 3.2 m, leaving Rs 0.8 m for leak repair, spare parts and a maintenance contract. Result: year-round supply 275,000 + 75,000 = 350,000 litres a day, or 29.2 litres per person - a 28 per cent gain - rising to 390,000 litres (32.5 per person) during the hot season.
Add the honest counter-argument: if a household survey shows the southern mohalla currently receives under 10 litres a day, equity could justify the pipeline instead. The meeting should ask the councillor for that data before voting, because the pipeline's case rests on distribution, not on the size of the number.
3. The councillor says that because the standard is still not met, the money would be wasted. How do you answer, and what indicators would you publish?
Read the worked answer
Reject the all-or-nothing frame. No single year's budget closes a 265,000 litre-a-day gap, and judging a Rs 4.0 m allocation by whether it achieves in twelve months what requires a decade of investment is a standard that guarantees nothing is ever done. The test is improvement per rupee and whether the improvement is durable.
After repairs the residual gap is 190,000 litres a day in ordinary months and 150,000 in summer - smaller than today's 265,000, and reached with an asset that keeps producing after the financial year closes. The pipeline alone, by contrast, would leave the rest of the council at 275,000 litres and the wells still broken.
Indicators to publish quarterly, so the claim can be checked rather than asserted:
- Litres per person per day at the standpost at peak hour, measured in at least three mohallas.
- Well downtime, in days per year, and the number of repairs completed on time.
- Hours of supply per day and average queue time.
- Estimated losses, from a simple night-flow or standpost audit.
- Complaints logged and resolved.
Finally, invite the councillor to state the success measure before the money is spent, and to sign the same sheet. A published baseline converts this from an argument about slogans into a report card.