Social Change, Globalisation, Migration, Demography and Lebanese Society
Social change
Drivers: technological innovation, economic transformation, demographic shifts, social movements, conflict. Theories: evolutionary, cyclical, conflict-based, functionalist. Concepts: modernisation, secularisation, urbanisation, individualisation.
Globalisation
Dimensions: economic (trade, FDI, global value chains), cultural (media, homogenisation vs hybridisation), political (international organisations). Debates: growth and opportunity versus inequality, labour exploitation, environmental pressure.
Migration and demography
Push/pull factors; types (economic, forced, family reunification). Demographic transition stages: high birth/death → falling death → falling birth → low both. Concepts: dependency ratio, fertility rate, life expectancy, population pyramid, ageing, youth bulge. Migration affects both sending (remittances, brain drain) and receiving countries.
Lebanese society
Features: confessional political system, sectarian diversity, large diaspora and remittances, urban concentration in Beirut, hosting of displaced populations, informal labour, emigration of skilled youth (brain drain), ageing and declining fertility, reconstruction challenges. Contemporary issues: currency collapse, emigration surge, weakened public services, informal settlements, gender and labour-market gaps.
Traps
- Confusing brain drain with remittances (the first is loss of human capital, the second a financial inflow).
- Mixing demographic transition stages.
- Assuming globalisation is only economic.
- Treating Lebanese sectarianism as purely religious rather than political-institutional.
Worked example
If 30% of the population is under 15 and 10% over 65, the youth dependency ratio is 30/60 = 0.5 and old-age dependency 10/60 ≈ 0.17; total dependency ≈ 0.67. High youth dependency pressures schools and jobs; high old-age dependency pressures pensions and health.