Decision Making
What the exam tests
Decision Making tests how pilots make choices under time pressure, uncertainty and risk, and how biases and situational awareness degrade judgement. Expect models such as FOR-DEC or DECIDE and questions on plan continuation.
Core rules
- Situational awareness has three levels: perception of cues, comprehension of meaning, and projection of future states. Loss of SA often precedes decision error.
- Analytical decision making compares options; naturalistic recognition-primed decisions rely on experience. Both are vulnerable to bias.
- Heuristics are mental shortcuts; they are useful but produce biases: confirmation (seeking supporting evidence), anchoring (first value dominates), availability (recent cases seem more likely), hindsight, and plan continuation.
- Plan continuation bias keeps a pilot on the original plan despite worsening cues; get-home-itis is a common form.
- FOR-DEC: Facts, Options, Risks, Decision, Execution, Check. It slows the loop enough to expose assumptions.
- Risk assessment should weigh consequence and probability, not just probability.
Worked example
A pilot is cleared for an approach after a long duty. The destination weather is at minima, the alternate is closing, and the last three aircraft went around. The pilot feels committed because of the schedule. Using FOR-DEC: facts include fuel and weather trend; options include diversion now; risks include a go-around at low fuel; decision is to divert; execution and check follow. Plan continuation would have been the trap.
Traps
- Equating a good outcome with a good decision.
- Ignoring base rates because of one vivid case.
- Letting the first officer's silence imply agreement.
- Treating 'press on' as a decision rather than a default.