Population, health and education
This domain examines population size, structure and change, and how health and education outcomes are measured. Expect questions interpreting population pyramids, calculating rates and ratios, and explaining the links between demographic change, human capital and development.
Measuring population change
- Crude birth rate = live births ÷ total population × 1,000; crude death rate uses deaths.
- Rate of natural increase = (births − deaths) ÷ population × 100; net migration must be added to get total growth.
- Total fertility rate is the average number of children per woman; about 2.1 is replacement level.
- Rule of 70: doubling time ≈ 70 ÷ annual growth rate, so 2% growth doubles a population in about 35 years.
Structure and dependency
Dependency ratio = (population aged 0–14 + 65 and over) ÷ (population aged 15–64) × 100. Pyramid shape reveals history: a broad base means high birth rates; a bulge at working ages may reflect past baby booms or in-migration; an asymmetric pyramid can indicate male labour migration.
Demographic transition
The model runs from high birth and death rates, through falling death rates (rapid growth), to falling birth rates and low growth. The demographic dividend arises in stage 3 when the working-age share peaks - but it only becomes real growth if jobs, education and health systems exist.
Health and education indicators
- Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births; under-5 mortality; maternal mortality ratio per 100,000 live births; life expectancy versus healthy life expectancy.
- Net enrolment ratio covers the official age group; completion rate and mean years of schooling say more about learning than enrolment does; pupil–teacher ratio and literacy rate add context.
Worked example
Country B: ages 0–14 = 42 million; 15–64 = 55 million; 65+ = 3 million. Dependency ratio = (42 + 3) ÷ 55 × 100 = 81.8, meaning about 82 dependants per 100 workers. High ratios imply heavy spending pressure on schools and clinics and lower household savings, so link the figure to policy rather than stopping at the arithmetic.
Traps that cost marks
Confusing birth rate with growth rate; treating rising enrolment as proof of learning; assuming falling death rates prove better healthcare when the age structure has simply become younger; using the wrong denominator for maternal mortality.