Population and Development
This domain examines how population size, structure, growth and movement affect development, and how development affects population. Exam questions often use population pyramids, dependency ratios and migration cases.
Key concepts
- Demographic transition describes falling death rates followed by falling birth rates as countries develop.
- Population structure matters more than totals: a youthful population needs schools and jobs; an ageing population needs pensions and health care.
- Dependency ratio compares dependants (under 15 and over 64) with the working-age population.
- Demographic dividend occurs when a falling dependency ratio creates a window of faster growth, but only if health, education and jobs are in place.
- Migration and urbanisation can ease pressure in rural areas but can also create informal settlements and service backlogs.
Namibia has a young population, a small total population of just over 3 million (2023 census), high urbanisation towards Windhoek and other towns, and significant migration within the region.
Worked example
A country has 40% of its population under 15, 5% over 64 and 55% of working age. The dependency ratio is (40 + 5) ÷ 55 = 0.82 dependants per working-age person. That is high. The reasoning: many children must be supported by a relatively small workforce. Policy implications include investing in child health and schooling, expanding jobs, and improving female education, which tends to lower birth rates over time. Population growth is not automatically a problem; the age structure and economic opportunities determine the outcome.
Traps that cost marks
Assuming population growth is always bad; confusing rates with absolute numbers; ignoring age structure; treating migration only as a problem; claiming a demographic dividend automatically follows from a youth bulge.