Sixty Forklift Operators in Nine Weeks
A regional third-party logistics company with 1,100 employees is opening a 250,000-square-foot distribution centre and must fill 60 forklift operator and 15 team-lead roles within nine weeks. Over the past 18 months, 78% of external forklift hires came through two staffing agencies charging a 22% markup; 90-day attrition for agency-sourced hires converted to permanent is 31%, against 12% for direct hires. The internal recruiting team is three people with no dedicated sourcing capacity. Online postings produce roughly 40 applications per hire, but only 9% of applicants pass the practical assessment. Budget is approved for all 75 roles, but agency spend is capped at 15% of total recruitment cost. One internal trainer runs a five-day certification course at a maximum of eight learners per week, and no shift can open without certified operators. The referral bonus is $500, paid after 90 days.
1. The operations director wants to double agency use to hit the nine-week deadline. What is your diagnosis of the 31% versus 12% attrition gap, and what must be fixed before scaling any channel?
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Diagnose before scaling. The gap is a signal, not a number to work around. Segment last-18-month leavers by source, shift, tenure at exit and stated reason. Three likely drivers, each with a different fix:
- Selection and realism - a 9% pass rate on the practical assessment suggests agencies are paid per placement and send volume. Candidates who never see the night schedule, the cold environment or the productivity target self-select out in week three.
- Psychological contract - temp-to-perm status plus lower pay than direct hires produces disengagement that shows up as absence first, then exit.
- Onboarding gap - five days of certification teaches the truck, not the job; there is no day-30 or day-60 check-in.
Fix before scaling. Add a realistic job preview to the advert and the interview, put a structured day-30 and day-60 check-in in the hands of the team lead, and agree a quality SLA with both agencies (replacement guarantee at 90 days, submission-to-interview ratio, named account manager). Hold the assessment unchanged until you have evidence it is mis-specified - a low pass rate is only a problem if the candidates who pass also leave.
Doubling a channel with 31% attrition doubles the replacement pipeline, not the workforce.
2. Build a sourcing and sequencing plan for the 75 roles given the 15% agency cap and the trainer's capacity. Show the reasoning behind the sequence.
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Start from the binding constraint. The trainer can certify eight operators per week: 72 slots across nine weeks, minus any recertification. That ceiling - not application volume - determines how fast the site can open. Hiring ahead of certification simply creates paid, unproductive staff.
Sequencing. Wave 1 (weeks 1–3): team leads first, because they set shift culture and run on-the-job coaching; fill them internally where possible so external slots are preserved for operators. Waves 2–4: operators in blocks aligned to certification slots, not to offer-acceptance dates.
Source mix. Referrals are the cheapest quality channel, but $500 paid at 90 days arrives too late to motivate during a nine-week sprint. Split it ($200 on start, $400 at 90 days) and target the night shifts that are hardest to fill. Use agencies as a bridge for wave 1 only, negotiating the 22% markup down against volume and requiring the 90-day replacement guarantee.
Cap check. If direct and referral channels deliver 55 of 75, agency covers 20. On a unit-cost basis that is roughly a quarter of hires - workable inside a 15% spend cap, but only if the cap is measured on spend, not headcount. Model both before committing.
3. Which five metrics go on a weekly dashboard, and what thresholds would make you change the plan?
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Five metrics, each tied to a decision.
- Time-to-certify (offer accepted to certified on shift) - tests whether the trainer is the real constraint.
- Certification slot utilisation - unused slots mean the constraint has moved upstream to offers.
- Source-of-hire attrition at day 30 - segments agency versus referral versus direct, by shift.
- Cost per hire by source, as a percentage of the recruitment budget - the only way to know whether the 15% cap will hold.
- Offer acceptance rate by source - a falling rate signals the advert or pay is uncompetitive.
Thresholds set in advance. If day-30 attrition in any cohort exceeds 15%, pause that channel and interview the leavers before resuming. If slot utilisation falls below 80% for two consecutive weeks, the constraint is offer conversion and the fix is pay positioning or advert quality, not more sourcing. If cost per hire from agencies passes 18% of the recruitment budget, freeze agency intake and redeploy the referral bonus.
The purpose of a threshold is to remove the argument in the moment. Agree it with the operations director before week one, in writing.