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Question 1Foundations of Decision Making
In decision theory, what does a 'decision' fundamentally involve?
- Avoiding any commitment to a single path
- Recording every option that was considered
- Predicting the future with certainty
- Choosing among alternatives to reach a desired outcome Correct answer.
Explanation
A decision is a commitment to one course of action selected from two or more alternatives, made in pursuit of a goal. The essence is the act of choosing, not merely listing options or forecasting. Without alternatives and a purpose, no genuine decision exists.
Question 2Foundations of Decision Making
Which statement best distinguishes a decision from a mere judgment?
- A decision can only be made by groups
- A decision commits to action while a judgment is an assessment Correct answer.
- A judgment requires no information at all
- A judgment always precedes a purchase
Explanation
Judgment is the evaluative assessment of a situation or options, whereas a decision adds a commitment to act on that assessment. A manager may judge a supplier as risky without deciding to switch. The distinguishing feature is the commitment to a course of action.
Question 3Foundations of Decision Making
A manager chooses the first satisfactory option encountered rather than searching for the best one. This behavior is called:
- Optimizing
- Maximizing
- Anchoring
- Satisficing Correct answer.
Explanation
Satisficing, a concept from Herbert Simon, describes selecting an option that meets an acceptable threshold rather than exhaustively searching for the optimum. It reflects bounded rationality and limited time or information. Optimizing and maximizing instead seek the best possible outcome.
Question 4Foundations of Decision Making
Which of the following is a characteristic of a well-structured (programmed) decision?
- It requires creative brainstorming each time
- It involves unpredictable, one-off circumstances
- It can be handled by established rules or procedures Correct answer.
- It is novel and has no precedent
Explanation
Programmed decisions are routine and repetitive, so organizations codify them into rules, policies, or standard operating procedures. Because the situation recurs, prior solutions can be applied reliably. Novel, unprecedented situations instead call for nonprogrammed judgment.
Question 5Foundations of Decision Making
In decision-making under uncertainty, what is the key defining condition?
- All outcomes and their probabilities are known
- Probabilities of outcomes cannot be reliably assigned Correct answer.
- The decision maker has unlimited time
- Only one possible outcome exists
Explanation
Uncertainty exists when the decision maker cannot assign reliable probabilities to possible outcomes, often because the situation is novel. This differs from risk, where probabilities are estimable. Under pure uncertainty, other criteria such as maximin or minimax regret may be used.
Question 6Foundations of Decision Making
What is the primary purpose of identifying objectives early in the decision process?
- To clarify what the decision should achieve Correct answer.
- To guarantee the first option is best
- To eliminate the need for any data
- To shorten the list of stakeholders
Explanation
Objectives specify the values and outcomes the decision should serve, giving criteria against which alternatives are judged. Clear objectives prevent solving the wrong problem and guide the search for options. They do not remove the need for information or guarantee any particular option.
Question 7Foundations of Decision Making
A decision maker systematically seeks out information that confirms an existing belief and ignores contrary evidence. This bias is known as:
- Sunk cost fallacy
- Availability heuristic
- Confirmation bias Correct answer.
- Framing effect
Explanation
Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, and recall information in ways that support pre-existing beliefs. It leads decision makers to overlook disconfirming evidence that could improve the choice. The other options name distinct biases with different mechanisms.
Question 8Foundations of Decision Making
Which element is essential for a decision problem to exist?
- Complete agreement among stakeholders
- A gap between a desired state and the current state Correct answer.
- A guaranteed profitable outcome
- A single obvious alternative
Explanation
A decision problem arises when there is a discrepancy between what is desired and what currently exists, and action is needed to close it. Without such a gap, there is nothing to decide. Multiple alternatives are typically present, and neither consensus nor guaranteed profit is required.
Question 9Foundations of Decision Making
A firm must choose between two suppliers. Supplier A guarantees a fixed cost of $50,000. Supplier B costs $30,000 with a 50% chance, or $90,000 with a 50% chance. Using expected value, which choice is preferred?
- They are exactly equal in expected cost
- Supplier A, with expected cost $30,000
- Supplier B, with expected cost $60,000
- Supplier A, with expected cost $50,000 Correct answer.
Explanation
Supplier B's expected cost is 0.5 × 30,000 + 0.5 × 90,000 = $60,000, while Supplier A's cost is a certain $50,000. Lower expected cost favors Supplier A. Expected value compares the probability-weighted outcomes, so the certain $50,000 beats the $60,000 expectation.
Question 10Foundations of Decision Making
A company frames a policy as 'a 90% survival rate' rather than 'a 10% mortality rate.' Why might this matter?
- Survival rates are always more accurate
- The two statements convey different facts
- Framing can shift how people perceive the same outcome Correct answer.
- Mortality statistics cannot be computed
Explanation
The framing effect shows that logically equivalent descriptions can produce different choices because people react differently to gains versus losses. A 90% survival frame emphasizes gains, while a 10% mortality frame emphasizes losses. The underlying facts are identical, so accuracy is not the issue.
Question 11Foundations of Decision Making
A manager keeps funding a failing project because $2 million has already been spent. Which bias best explains this?
- Anchoring
- Overconfidence
- Sunk cost fallacy Correct answer.
- Hindsight bias
Explanation
The sunk cost fallacy is the tendency to let irrecoverable past investments influence current choices. Rational decisions should weigh only future costs and benefits, since the $2 million cannot be recovered. The other biases involve reference points, self-assessment, or retrospection.
Question 12Foundations of Decision Making
When a decision maker applies the maximin criterion, which alternative is chosen?
- The one whose worst possible outcome is best Correct answer.
- The one with the highest best-case payoff
- The one with the highest expected value
- The one with the lowest average payoff
Explanation
Maximin is a conservative rule that evaluates each alternative by its worst possible outcome and selects the alternative whose worst outcome is the least bad. It suits highly risk-averse decision makers under uncertainty. It ignores expected values and best-case payoffs.
Question 13Foundations of Decision Making
Which sequence correctly orders the classic rational decision-making process?
- Identify problem, generate alternatives, evaluate and choose, implement and evaluate Correct answer.
- Evaluate, implement, generate alternatives, identify problem
- Implement, identify problem, evaluate, generate alternatives
- Generate alternatives, implement, identify problem, evaluate
Explanation
The rational model begins by recognizing and defining the problem, then develops alternatives, evaluates them against criteria to select one, and finally implements and reviews the outcome. Order matters because evaluation requires defined alternatives and criteria. Implementation comes after a choice is made.
Question 14Foundations of Decision Making
Bounded rationality, as described by Herbert Simon, suggests that decision makers:
- Are limited by cognitive capacity and information Correct answer.
- Always find the optimal solution
- Ignore all available information
- Never make systematic errors
Explanation
Bounded rationality recognizes that human cognitive limits, time constraints, and incomplete information prevent fully rational optimization. Decision makers therefore satisfice, seeking good-enough solutions. They still use information and can make systematic errors.
Question 15Foundations of Decision Making
A team judges a rare event as likely because a vivid recent example comes to mind. Which heuristic is at work?
- Status quo bias
- Representativeness heuristic
- Availability heuristic Correct answer.
- Anchoring and adjustment
Explanation
The availability heuristic estimates probability by how easily relevant examples can be recalled. Vivid, recent, or emotionally striking events are easier to retrieve and thus feel more probable than they are. Representativeness instead judges similarity to a stereotype.
Question 16Foundations of Decision Making
What is the main advantage of generating multiple alternatives before choosing?
- It widens the chance of finding a strong option Correct answer.
- It guarantees the optimal answer
- It removes the need for evaluation criteria
- It eliminates uncertainty entirely
Explanation
Generating several alternatives reduces the risk of overlooking a superior option and counters premature closure on the first idea. More options must still be evaluated against criteria. It cannot guarantee optimality or eliminate uncertainty.
Question 17Foundations of Decision Making
A decision maker weighs outcomes by their probabilities and selects the alternative with the highest weighted result. This approach is called:
- Satisficing
- Maximin
- Framing
- Expected value maximization Correct answer.
Explanation
Expected value maximization multiplies each outcome by its probability, sums these products, and picks the alternative with the highest total. It assumes probabilities are known and that the decision maker is risk-neutral. Maximin and satisficing use different, non-probabilistic rules.
Question 18Foundations of Decision Making
In a payoff table, a decision maker using the minimax regret rule first computes regret for each state and then:
- Selects the alternative with the smallest maximum regret Correct answer.
- Averages regret across all alternatives
- Selects the alternative with the largest maximum regret
- Ignores regret and picks randomly
Explanation
Regret is the difference between an outcome and the best outcome available in that state of nature. Minimax regret evaluates each alternative by its largest regret and chooses the alternative whose maximum regret is smallest. This limits the worst disappointment a choice could cause.
Question 19Foundations of Decision Making
Why is it important to consider stakeholders when defining a decision problem?
- They remove all uncertainty from outcomes
- They always make the final decision
- They determine the laws of probability
- Their preferences can shape which outcomes count as success Correct answer.
Explanation
Stakeholders hold interests and values that define what counts as a good outcome, and their reactions can affect implementation. Ignoring them risks a technically sound choice that fails in practice. They do not make all final decisions or alter objective probabilities.
Question 20Foundations of Decision Making
The 'status quo bias' in decision making refers to the tendency to:
- Prefer the current option even when a better one exists Correct answer.
- Change decisions on every occasion
- Always select the newest alternative
- Ignore all default settings
Explanation
Status quo bias is a preference for maintaining the current state of affairs, often because change feels risky or requires effort. It can lead decision makers to stick with inferior options simply because they are familiar. It is the opposite of favoring novelty or constant change.
Question 21Foundations of Decision Making
A manager must decide under strict time pressure with incomplete data. Which concept best describes this situation?
- Bounded rationality Correct answer.
- Certainty
- Perfect rationality
- Optimization
Explanation
Time pressure and incomplete information are the defining constraints of bounded rationality, which recognizes limits on search and computation. Decision makers respond by satisficing rather than optimizing. Certainty and perfect rationality would require complete information and unlimited capacity.
Question 22Foundations of Decision Making
An analyst anchors on an initial sales forecast of 1,000 units and adjusts only slightly to 1,050 despite strong contrary evidence. Which bias is illustrated?
- Availability heuristic
- Sunk cost fallacy
- Confirmation bias
- Anchoring and adjustment Correct answer.
Explanation
Anchoring and adjustment occurs when an initial value serves as a reference point and subsequent adjustments are insufficient. Here the original 1,000-unit forecast unduly constrains the revised estimate. The other biases involve ease of recall, selective evidence, or past investment.
Question 23Foundations of Decision Making
Two alternatives have equal expected monetary value, but one has far greater variance in outcomes. A risk-averse decision maker should:
- Choose randomly to avoid bias
- Be indifferent because expected values are equal
- Prefer the alternative with higher variance
- Prefer the alternative with lower variance Correct answer.
Explanation
A risk-averse decision maker values stability and dislikes large downside swings, so among equal expected values the lower-variance option is preferred. Expected value alone ignores risk, which is why variance matters. A risk-seeking person might instead favor higher variance.
Question 24Foundations of Decision Making
Which statement best explains why the rational model is often an idealization rather than a description of real behavior?
- It requires too many stakeholders to participate
- It applies only to trivial decisions
- It assumes complete information and unlimited processing that people lack Correct answer.
- It forbids the use of any criteria
Explanation
The rational model presumes that decision makers can identify all alternatives, obtain complete information, and compute optimal choices. Real decision makers face cognitive limits, time constraints, and incomplete data, as bounded rationality emphasizes. The model thus serves as a benchmark rather than a literal account of behavior.
Question 25Foundations of Decision Making
A firm's prior investment in research is unrecoverable, yet managers cite it when justifying further spending. Which reasoning error does this represent?
- They use minimax regret appropriately
- They confuse average cost with marginal cost by counting sunk costs Correct answer.
- They rely on the availability heuristic
- They correctly apply expected value to future outcomes
Explanation
Rational choice requires weighing only incremental future costs and benefits against each other. Past, unrecoverable spending is sunk and should not influence the marginal decision. Citing it conflates historical average cost with the marginal cost of continuing.
Question 26Foundations of Decision Making
In decision analysis, what distinguishes a decision from an outcome?
- A decision is measurable in money, while an outcome is always qualitative
- A decision is the final result of a process, while an outcome is the list of options considered
- A decision is made by chance, while an outcome is made deliberately
- A decision is a choice made among alternatives, while an outcome is what results after chance factors play out Correct answer.
Explanation
A decision is the deliberate selection of one alternative from a set of options available to the decision maker. An outcome is the consequence that follows, and it depends partly on uncertain events outside the decision maker's control. Keeping these two ideas separate matters because good decisions can produce bad outcomes and vice versa.
Question 27Foundations of Decision Making
A payoff table lists three alternatives and two future states of nature. Which feature of the table represents uncertainty rather than choice?
- The payoff values written inside each cell
- The number of alternatives listed as rows
- The future states of nature listed as columns Correct answer.
- The labels given to the alternatives
Explanation
In a payoff table, the rows are the alternatives the decision maker controls, and the columns are the states of nature that occur regardless of the choice. Uncertainty enters through which state will actually happen. The payoffs simply show what each alternative yields under each state.
Question 28Foundations of Decision Making
A manager insists on evaluating every possible supplier worldwide before choosing one, even though the search cost will far exceed any gain. Which concept best explains why this approach is flawed?
- The manager is ignoring the principle of bounded rationality and satisficing Correct answer.
- The manager is overusing the availability heuristic
- The manager is committing the sunk cost fallacy
- The manager is applying the maximin criterion incorrectly
Explanation
Bounded rationality recognizes that time, information, and cognitive capacity are limited, so decision makers usually search until a satisfactory option is found rather than until every option is examined. Exhaustive search carries real costs that can outweigh the benefit of a marginally better choice. Satisficing accepts a good-enough alternative once an acceptable threshold is met.
Question 29Foundations of Decision Making
A decision maker states a goal as 'maximize long-run profit' but the team cannot tell when the goal has been met. What is the most useful improvement to this objective?
- Remove the time horizon so the goal stays flexible
- Add more stakeholders to the goal statement
- Restate the goal as minimizing losses rather than maximizing profit
- Replace it with a measurable target such as profit growth of at least 8 percent per year over five years Correct answer.
Explanation
A well-formed objective should be specific enough that the decision maker can judge whether an alternative achieves it. Adding a measurable indicator and a time frame turns a vague aspiration into a testable criterion. This makes comparing alternatives and evaluating results far more reliable.
Question 30Foundations of Decision Making
Two managers face the same underlying situation. Manager X frames it as a choice between certain gains, while Manager Y frames it as a choice between certain losses. Based on prospect theory, how are their choices likely to differ?
- Both will become risk neutral, because the underlying payoffs are identical
- Manager Y will tend to be risk averse, while Manager X will tend to be risk seeking
- Both will select the same alternative, because framing affects only how choices are described afterward
- Manager X will tend to be risk averse, while Manager Y will tend to be risk seeking Correct answer.
Explanation
Prospect theory holds that people evaluate outcomes relative to a reference point and treat gains and losses differently. Losses loom larger than equivalent gains, so decision makers facing gains tend to prefer sure outcomes while those facing losses tend to gamble to avoid a certain loss. Because the frame sets the reference point, identical payoffs can produce opposite risk attitudes.
Question 31Framing the Decision Problem
In decision framing, what is the primary purpose of writing a triggering decision statement?
- To record the exact moment a choice must be made and the outcome it should serve Correct answer.
- To list every alternative the organization could conceivably pursue
- To assign blame for a past outcome that went poorly
- To estimate the budget required for analysis
Explanation
A triggering decision statement captures the specific occasion that forces a choice plus the result the decision maker wants to achieve. It anchors the frame so later analysis stays tied to a real moment rather than drifting into vague generalities.
Question 32Framing the Decision Problem
A manager says, 'We should decide how to cut costs.' Which revision best converts this into a well-framed decision question?
- How can we cut costs by 10 percent next quarter without harming service quality? Correct answer.
- Why are our costs higher than they were three years ago?
- Should the finance team be restructured?
- What do competitors spend on operations?
Explanation
A strong decision question names the action, the scope, and the constraint or success criterion. Adding a target, a time horizon, and a guardrail turns a vague concern into something that can actually be evaluated against alternatives.
Question 33Framing the Decision Problem
Which element is a W (what, why, when, who) question that helps define the scope of a decision problem?
- What software does the team use?
- What is the industry average margin?
- What would make this decision a success? Correct answer.
- What did we decide last year?
Explanation
The 'what' of success defines the criteria against which alternatives will be judged, which is central to scoping the problem. Historical choices, benchmarks, and tooling are inputs, not definitions of scope.
Question 34Framing the Decision Problem
Two departments describe the same hiring shortfall differently: one frames it as 'we cannot attract talent,' the other as 'our offer process is too slow.' What does this illustrate about framing?
- Framing is irrelevant once data are collected
- The same situation can be framed in multiple ways that point toward different actions Correct answer.
- Only one department can be objectively correct about the cause
- Hiring problems should always be framed as compensation issues
Explanation
Framing determines which causes and remedies appear relevant, so competing frames of one situation lead to different interventions. Recognizing multiple frames is the first step toward testing which one the evidence supports.
Question 35Framing the Decision Problem
What role does a decision's 'trigger' play in the framing process?
- It specifies the analytical method to be used
- It names the person accountable for the outcome
- It identifies the event or deadline that makes the choice necessary now Correct answer.
- It sets the maximum acceptable risk
Explanation
The trigger is the occasion that forces action, such as a contract expiring or a deadline arriving. Knowing the trigger clarifies timing and urgency, which shapes how much analysis is feasible before the choice must be made.
Question 36Framing the Decision Problem
A team is asked to decide whether to enter a new market. Which framing choice most narrows the problem inappropriately?
- Asking which entry modes are feasible
- Asking what success would look like in five years
- Asking which markets fit the firm's capabilities
- Asking only whether to acquire one specific competitor Correct answer.
Explanation
Reducing a market-entry decision to a single predetermined transaction eliminates the broader set of entry modes and targets before they can be compared. Good framing keeps the option space open enough to include genuinely different alternatives.
Question 37Framing the Decision Problem
Why is it useful to state the 'why' behind a decision problem?
- It removes the need to gather any further information
- It connects the choice to the underlying objective the decision should serve Correct answer.
- It guarantees stakeholder agreement on the method
- It proves that the decision has only one correct answer
Explanation
Articulating why the decision matters ties the immediate choice to a broader goal, which helps in judging alternatives. Without a stated objective, options cannot be ranked on anything but intuition.
Question 38Framing the Decision Problem
A firm frames a customer-complaint surge as 'a training problem.' Which consequence is most likely to follow from this frame?
- Analysis will become unnecessary because the cause is known
- Solutions will focus on staff skills while process and product causes may be overlooked Correct answer.
- Complaint volume will be treated as irrelevant
- The firm will automatically resolve the complaints
Explanation
A frame acts as a filter, directing attention toward causes consistent with it and away from others. Framing the issue as training makes process, product, and policy explanations less likely to be examined.
Question 39Framing the Decision Problem
Which statement best describes the boundary of a decision frame?
- The list of people who will be informed of the outcome
- The date on which the decision must be announced
- The final option selected after analysis
- The set of factors treated as inside the decision and those treated as fixed context Correct answer.
Explanation
A frame's boundary separates what the decision will consider changing from what it accepts as given. Moving an item across that boundary can transform the available alternatives.
Question 40Framing the Decision Problem
A project team is told to 'decide which vendor to use' but has not agreed on what the vendor must deliver. What is the most useful reframing step?
- Expand the list of vendors to include every possible supplier
- Select the vendor with the lowest bid immediately
- Postpone the decision indefinitely
- Clarify the required outcomes and criteria before comparing vendors Correct answer.
Explanation
When the objective is unclear, comparing options is premature because there is no basis for ranking them. Establishing required outcomes and criteria first gives the vendor comparison a meaningful standard.
Question 41Framing the Decision Problem
Which practice best guards against framing a decision too narrowly?
- Adopting the frame used in the most recent similar decision
- Committing to the first plausible problem statement to save time
- Delegating the framing to the person with the strongest opinion
- Deliberately generating alternative statements of the problem before choosing one Correct answer.
Explanation
Writing several candidate problem statements exposes assumptions that a single frame would hide. Comparing them reveals whether the first framing omitted important alternatives or criteria.
Question 42Framing the Decision Problem
What distinguishes a decision problem from a mere expression of dissatisfaction?
- It identifies a choice to be made and a result the chooser wants Correct answer.
- It contains a numerical target
- It includes a complaint about how things currently stand
- It names the department responsible for the issue
Explanation
A decision problem is defined by an actor, a required choice, and a desired outcome. Dissatisfaction alone describes a gap but does not specify what must be decided or by whom.
Question 43Framing the Decision Problem
A board frames an acquisition as 'a growth decision.' How might this frame shape the alternatives considered?
- It eliminates the need to value the target
- It favors expansion-oriented options and may underweight risk and integration concerns Correct answer.
- It guarantees the acquisition will be approved
- It makes financing irrelevant
Explanation
Labels steer attention, so a growth frame highlights upside options while making downside considerations like integration risk less salient. A balanced frame names both the opportunity and the constraints that must hold.
Question 44Framing the Decision Problem
Which question best tests whether a decision frame is at the right level of abstraction?
- Is the frame stated in fewer than twenty words?
- Does the frame mention every department in the firm?
- Was the frame approved by senior management?
- Does this frame point to actions we can actually take within our authority? Correct answer.
Explanation
A frame that is too abstract yields no actionable alternatives, while one that is too concrete forecloses options. Testing whether the frame supports concrete action within the decision maker's authority checks the level.
Question 45Framing the Decision Problem
In the W question framework, which element asks who must be involved in or affected by the decision?
- What
- When
- Why
- Who Correct answer.
Explanation
The 'who' element identifies the decision maker, contributors, and stakeholders whose interests the choice affects. Clarifying participants early prevents later disputes about legitimacy and input.
Question 46Framing the Decision Problem
A retail chain frames slumping sales as 'a pricing problem.' Which alternative frame would most broaden the analysis?
- A change in the fiscal calendar
- A revision to internal reporting templates
- A temporary accounting error
- A decline in store traffic caused by shifting customer habits Correct answer.
Explanation
A traffic-based frame points to demand and customer-behavior causes rather than price alone, opening different data and remedies. The other options are accounting or administrative artifacts unlikely to explain sustained sales decline.
Question 47Framing the Decision Problem
Why should the decision trigger and the decision deadline be distinguished?
- The deadline always precedes the trigger
- They are identical concepts with different names
- The trigger applies only to individuals and the deadline only to firms
- The trigger is the event that makes a choice necessary, while the deadline is when the choice must be made Correct answer.
Explanation
A trigger is the circumstance that creates the need to decide, such as a lease expiring, whereas the deadline is the latest acceptable moment for committing. Separating them clarifies how much time is available for analysis.
Question 48Framing the Decision Problem
A team writes a decision statement that includes the action, the timing, and the success criterion. Which element is still missing for a complete frame?
- A detailed implementation schedule
- A list of every possible alternative
- A forecast of competitor behavior
- The decision maker or accountable owner Correct answer.
Explanation
A complete frame identifies what is being decided, when, why, and by whom. Naming the accountable decision maker is the remaining element; alternatives and implementation plans belong to later stages.
Question 49Framing the Decision Problem
Which situation most clearly signals that a decision is being framed at the wrong level?
- The team agrees on the objective before listing options
- The team writes several candidate problem statements
- The team debates office seating while the real question is whether to relocate the division Correct answer.
- The team sets a deadline for the choice
Explanation
Framing at the wrong level occurs when attention fixes on a minor sub-issue while the consequential choice goes unexamined. Debating seating when relocation is at stake misdirects analytical effort.
Question 50Framing the Decision Problem
What is the main benefit of writing a decision statement in one clear sentence?
- It replaces the need for stakeholder consultation
- It removes uncertainty from the outcome
- It forces the decision maker to commit to a specific action, scope, and purpose Correct answer.
- It ensures the analysis will produce a single unambiguous answer
Explanation
Condensing the frame into one sentence exposes vagueness in the action, scope, or purpose. The discipline of precision is the benefit, not a guarantee about the analysis or the result.