Smart Choices study plan
Smart Choices · Give each week a clear focus.
8 weeks · About 6 hours per week
Foundations of Decision Making & Identifying Objectives and Alternatives
Define the six core elements of a decision problem (problem, objectives, alternatives, consequences, trade-offs, uncertainty) and write a one-paragraph summary of each in your own words
Distinguish normative, descriptive, and prescriptive accounts of choice, and classify ten everyday decisions you have made under each lens
Generate at least eight alternatives for two real personal decisions, deliberately including one 'do nothing' and one creative option you would not normally consider
Construct a basic objectives hierarchy for a live decision, separating fundamental objectives from means objectives
Identify and label three decision traps (e.g., anchoring, status quo, sunk cost) in short written scenarios you compose yourself
Your checkpoint
A decision journal entry for one real decision containing a written problem statement, an objectives hierarchy with at least six objectives, and a list of at least eight alternatives
Foundations of Decision Making & Assessing Uncertainty and Risk
Map the decision lifecycle from framing through implementation and review, and annotate where each domain of the exam applies
Explain the difference between risk (known probabilities) and uncertainty (unknown or contested probabilities) using two self-written examples
Build a simple payoff table for a decision with three alternatives and three future scenarios
Compute expected value for each alternative in that table and interpret what the number does and does not tell you
Describe how a decision tree represents a sequential choice and sketch one with at least two decision nodes
Your checkpoint
A one-page payoff table with expected values, plus a hand-drawn decision tree for a sequential decision, each accompanied by a short interpretation note
Framing the Decision Problem & Identifying Objectives and Alternatives
Rewrite three badly framed decision statements into neutral, option-opening frames that avoid yes/no and either-or phrasing
Detect and correct framing effects by restating the same outcome in gain and loss terms and noting how preference shifts
Test an objectives set for completeness by asking 'what would achieving this get me?' until you reach fundamental values
Expand an alternatives set using at least four ideation prompts (e.g., scale up, scale down, unbundle, combine, defer)
Identify the decision frame's scope and time horizon explicitly for two decisions and note how changing either alters the option set
Your checkpoint
A framing worksheet for one decision showing the original frame, two reframed versions, the corrected objectives list, and an expanded alternatives list of at least ten items
Gathering and Evaluating Information & Assessing Uncertainty and Risk
Distinguish relevant from irrelevant information and screen a set of facts for sunk costs, anecdote, and availability bias
Design a short information-gathering plan specifying what you need to know, likely sources, and a stopping rule
Estimate a range for an uncertain quantity using a three-point (low, most likely, high) approach and justify the spread
Apply a sensitivity check to your payoff table by varying one key assumption and recording whether the preferred alternative changes
Explain base rates and give one worked example where ignoring a base rate would mislead a decision maker
Your checkpoint
An information plan plus a sensitivity analysis table showing the preferred alternative under at least three variations of a key assumption, with a written conclusion
Assessing Uncertainty and Risk & Trade-offs and Values
Classify five uncertainties from your own decisions as aleatory or epistemic and state which are reducible by further information
Construct a risk profile listing the best, worst, and most likely outcome for each alternative in one decision
Apply expected utility reasoning to a case where expected value and stated preference diverge, and explain the divergence
Build a weighted scoring model with at least five criteria and three alternatives, then test whether the ranking survives a change in weights
Make a trade-off explicit by stating what you are willing to give up for what, in one sentence per trade-off
Your checkpoint
A completed weighted scoring matrix with sensitivity check on the weights and a written trade-off statement identifying your top two value conflicts
Trade-offs and Values & Group and Stakeholder Decisions
Elicit stakeholder interests by writing a stakeholder map with each party's objectives, influence, and likely objections
Design a process for a group decision that separates idea generation from evaluation and states how disagreement will be resolved
Identify three group pathologies (e.g., groupthink, anchoring on the first speaker, diffusion of responsibility) and propose a concrete countermeasure for each
Practice surfacing a dissenting view by writing the strongest argument against your own preferred alternative
Compare at least two aggregation approaches (e.g., voting versus consensus versus leader decides after input) for a specific group decision and justify a choice
Your checkpoint
A stakeholder map plus a one-page group decision protocol specifying roles, sequencing, dissent mechanism, and resolution rule
Implementation and Follow-Through & Gathering and Evaluating Information
Translate a chosen alternative into an action plan with owners, deadlines, and required resources
Pre-commit to review checkpoints and define in advance what evidence would trigger a change of course
Distinguish outcome quality from decision quality and write one example of a good decision with a bad outcome
Draft a short after-action review template covering what was expected, what happened, and what to change next time
Set up a simple tracking mechanism for two live decisions so results can be reviewed against predictions
Your checkpoint
An implementation plan for one real decision including owners, milestones, review dates, tripwires for reversal, and a completed after-action template
Foundations of Decision Making & Framing the Decision Problem & Identifying Objectives and Alternatives & Gathering and Evaluating Information & Assessing Uncertainty and Risk & Trade-offs and Values & Group and Stakeholder Decisions & Implementation and Follow-Through
Consolidate all eight domains into a single one-page decision checklist you can reuse
Re-work two earlier journal entries using the full checklist and note what you would now do differently
Self-test on weak areas identified in weeks 1 through 7 and log every concept you could not explain from memory
Explain each of the eight domains aloud in under two minutes without notes
Write a personal decision-making protocol for the next quarter naming the three habits you will keep
Your checkpoint
A one-page integrated decision checklist plus a written self-audit listing retained concepts, remaining gaps, and the three habits you commit to
Milestones
Week 2: Can define all six core elements of a decision problem from memory and correctly compute expected value for a three-by-three payoff table without notes
Week 4: Can reframe a yes/no decision into an option-opening frame and produce ten alternatives in under fifteen minutes, and can explain why a sensitivity result changes or preserves a recommendation
Week 6: Can build a weighted scoring model end to end and articulate the strongest counterargument to your own preferred option in writing
Week 8: Can walk through all eight domains using the integrated checklist and correctly answer self-written questions on every concept previously logged as a gap