Smart Choices study materials
Smart Choices study resources

Smart Choices study plan

Smart Choices · Give each week a clear focus.

8 weeks · About 6 hours per week

Week 1

Foundations of Decision Making & Identifying Objectives and Alternatives

  • Define the six core elements of a decision problem (problem, objectives, alternatives, consequences, trade-offs, uncertainty) and write a one-paragraph summary of each in your own words

  • Distinguish normative, descriptive, and prescriptive accounts of choice, and classify ten everyday decisions you have made under each lens

  • Generate at least eight alternatives for two real personal decisions, deliberately including one 'do nothing' and one creative option you would not normally consider

  • Construct a basic objectives hierarchy for a live decision, separating fundamental objectives from means objectives

  • Identify and label three decision traps (e.g., anchoring, status quo, sunk cost) in short written scenarios you compose yourself

Your checkpoint

A decision journal entry for one real decision containing a written problem statement, an objectives hierarchy with at least six objectives, and a list of at least eight alternatives

Week 2

Foundations of Decision Making & Assessing Uncertainty and Risk

  • Map the decision lifecycle from framing through implementation and review, and annotate where each domain of the exam applies

  • Explain the difference between risk (known probabilities) and uncertainty (unknown or contested probabilities) using two self-written examples

  • Build a simple payoff table for a decision with three alternatives and three future scenarios

  • Compute expected value for each alternative in that table and interpret what the number does and does not tell you

  • Describe how a decision tree represents a sequential choice and sketch one with at least two decision nodes

Your checkpoint

A one-page payoff table with expected values, plus a hand-drawn decision tree for a sequential decision, each accompanied by a short interpretation note

Week 3

Framing the Decision Problem & Identifying Objectives and Alternatives

  • Rewrite three badly framed decision statements into neutral, option-opening frames that avoid yes/no and either-or phrasing

  • Detect and correct framing effects by restating the same outcome in gain and loss terms and noting how preference shifts

  • Test an objectives set for completeness by asking 'what would achieving this get me?' until you reach fundamental values

  • Expand an alternatives set using at least four ideation prompts (e.g., scale up, scale down, unbundle, combine, defer)

  • Identify the decision frame's scope and time horizon explicitly for two decisions and note how changing either alters the option set

Your checkpoint

A framing worksheet for one decision showing the original frame, two reframed versions, the corrected objectives list, and an expanded alternatives list of at least ten items

Week 4

Gathering and Evaluating Information & Assessing Uncertainty and Risk

  • Distinguish relevant from irrelevant information and screen a set of facts for sunk costs, anecdote, and availability bias

  • Design a short information-gathering plan specifying what you need to know, likely sources, and a stopping rule

  • Estimate a range for an uncertain quantity using a three-point (low, most likely, high) approach and justify the spread

  • Apply a sensitivity check to your payoff table by varying one key assumption and recording whether the preferred alternative changes

  • Explain base rates and give one worked example where ignoring a base rate would mislead a decision maker

Your checkpoint

An information plan plus a sensitivity analysis table showing the preferred alternative under at least three variations of a key assumption, with a written conclusion

Week 5

Assessing Uncertainty and Risk & Trade-offs and Values

  • Classify five uncertainties from your own decisions as aleatory or epistemic and state which are reducible by further information

  • Construct a risk profile listing the best, worst, and most likely outcome for each alternative in one decision

  • Apply expected utility reasoning to a case where expected value and stated preference diverge, and explain the divergence

  • Build a weighted scoring model with at least five criteria and three alternatives, then test whether the ranking survives a change in weights

  • Make a trade-off explicit by stating what you are willing to give up for what, in one sentence per trade-off

Your checkpoint

A completed weighted scoring matrix with sensitivity check on the weights and a written trade-off statement identifying your top two value conflicts

Week 6

Trade-offs and Values & Group and Stakeholder Decisions

  • Elicit stakeholder interests by writing a stakeholder map with each party's objectives, influence, and likely objections

  • Design a process for a group decision that separates idea generation from evaluation and states how disagreement will be resolved

  • Identify three group pathologies (e.g., groupthink, anchoring on the first speaker, diffusion of responsibility) and propose a concrete countermeasure for each

  • Practice surfacing a dissenting view by writing the strongest argument against your own preferred alternative

  • Compare at least two aggregation approaches (e.g., voting versus consensus versus leader decides after input) for a specific group decision and justify a choice

Your checkpoint

A stakeholder map plus a one-page group decision protocol specifying roles, sequencing, dissent mechanism, and resolution rule

Week 7

Implementation and Follow-Through & Gathering and Evaluating Information

  • Translate a chosen alternative into an action plan with owners, deadlines, and required resources

  • Pre-commit to review checkpoints and define in advance what evidence would trigger a change of course

  • Distinguish outcome quality from decision quality and write one example of a good decision with a bad outcome

  • Draft a short after-action review template covering what was expected, what happened, and what to change next time

  • Set up a simple tracking mechanism for two live decisions so results can be reviewed against predictions

Your checkpoint

An implementation plan for one real decision including owners, milestones, review dates, tripwires for reversal, and a completed after-action template

Week 8

Foundations of Decision Making & Framing the Decision Problem & Identifying Objectives and Alternatives & Gathering and Evaluating Information & Assessing Uncertainty and Risk & Trade-offs and Values & Group and Stakeholder Decisions & Implementation and Follow-Through

  • Consolidate all eight domains into a single one-page decision checklist you can reuse

  • Re-work two earlier journal entries using the full checklist and note what you would now do differently

  • Self-test on weak areas identified in weeks 1 through 7 and log every concept you could not explain from memory

  • Explain each of the eight domains aloud in under two minutes without notes

  • Write a personal decision-making protocol for the next quarter naming the three habits you will keep

Your checkpoint

A one-page integrated decision checklist plus a written self-audit listing retained concepts, remaining gaps, and the three habits you commit to

Milestones

Week 2: Can define all six core elements of a decision problem from memory and correctly compute expected value for a three-by-three payoff table without notes

Week 4: Can reframe a yes/no decision into an option-opening frame and produce ten alternatives in under fifteen minutes, and can explain why a sensitivity result changes or preserves a recommendation

Week 6: Can build a weighted scoring model end to end and articulate the strongest counterargument to your own preferred option in writing

Week 8: Can walk through all eight domains using the integrated checklist and correctly answer self-written questions on every concept previously logged as a gap