CSPA study guide
CSPA · Work through your exam, one topic at a time.
The Certified Specialist in Predictive Analytics (CSPA) is an iCAS credential involving multiple learning and assessment components, practical analytical work, and professional responsibilities. It should not be treated as one uniform multiple-choice exam, and it is not interchangeable with the separate CAS PCPA assessment. The CSPA study guide has 6 sections and about 2,734 words.
01Insurance quantities and the prediction problem
Begin every analysis by defining the insurance quantity being predicted and the decision it will support. Claim count, claim severity, aggregate loss, probability of fraud, renewal, and outstanding claim liability are different targets.
453 words, about 2 min02Reliable data, features, and useful visualizations
Define the unit of observation and the time at which a prediction will be made. A policy record, a claim record, and a transaction record cannot be joined indiscriminately.
453 words, about 2 min03GLMs, link functions, offsets, and interpretation
A generalized linear model connects a response distribution, a linear predictor, and a link function. The link relates the conditional mean to the linear predictor; it does not automatically mean transforming the observed response and fitting ordinary least squares.
465 words, about 2 min04Trees, ensembles, complexity, and explanation
A decision tree divides observations according to predictor conditions and assigns predictions within terminal regions. This can represent nonlinear relationships and interactions without specifying every term in advance.
452 words, about 2 min05Honest performance, calibration, and decision thresholds
Validation should approximate how the model will be used. A random row split can be misleading when several observations belong to the same customer, claim, household, or policy, or when the deployment task predicts a future period.
461 words, about 2 min06Pricing, reserving, ethics, and reproducible delivery
An insurance analytics project starts with a defined business question, a relevant population, and a decision process. For pricing, distinguish estimating expected loss from setting a final premium.
450 words, about 2 min