CAA Associate Actuary (China) flashcards
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24 cards. Read the term and the definition here. The deck at the top of this page is optional.
- Conditional probability
- The probability of an event within a specified conditioning situation, calculated using a compatible event definition and nonzero conditioning probability.
- Prior probability
- A probability assigned before the particular evidence used for an update, which remains part of the posterior calculation.
- Posterior probability
- An updated probability combining the prior weights and the likelihood of the observed evidence under the stated model.
- Expected value
- A probability-weighted average of possible outcomes, which is neither a guaranteed individual result nor the maximum possible loss.
- Variance
- A measure of squared dispersion around a mean whose population or sample definition determines the appropriate denominator.
- Standard deviation
- A measure of dispersion in the original variable units obtained as the square root of the stated variance.
- Standard error
- A measure of the sampling variability of an estimator under a stated sampling design or probabilistic model.
- Confidence interval
- An interval produced by a procedure with a stated coverage property under its assumptions, rather than a guarantee for every realized interval.
- P-value
- A probability of results at least as incompatible with the specified null model by the chosen test statistic, not the probability that the null is true.
- Sampling bias
- A systematic difference related to selection or coverage that is not automatically removed by increasing the number of responses.
- Stratified sampling
- A design sampling within defined groups of the population, with allocation and analysis appropriate to the population and objective.
- Cluster sampling
- A design selecting groups of units, whose dependence and group structure need consideration in estimation and uncertainty calculations.
- Regression
- A model describing a conditional relationship among variables that does not by itself establish the effect of an intervention.
- Correlation
- A summary of association between variables under its definition, distinguished from a demonstration that one variable causes the other.
- Effective interest rate
- A rate describing the actual accumulation factor over its stated period, which differs from a nominal conversion convention.
- Nominal interest rate
- A quoted rate paired with a compounding frequency, requiring conversion before comparison with an effective rate for another period.
- Force of interest
- An instantaneous interest accumulation measure whose constant form produces an exponential model over the defined time basis.
- Annuity in arrears
- A series of payments at the ends of the stated periods, distinguished from otherwise similar payments made at their beginnings.
- Annuity in advance
- A series of payments at the beginnings of the stated periods, with timing affecting its value relative to arrears payments.
- Life table
- A model describing survival and deaths for a defined cohort or population basis, rather than a prediction of each individual life.
- Mortality probability
- A probability of death within a defined interval conditional on survival to its start under the stated life-table basis.
- Present value
- An amount expressed at a specified valuation date using a defined discount model and compatible timing assumptions.
- Prospective reserve
- A modeled value of future obligations less the relevant future receipts under the selected contract and valuation basis.
- Sensitivity analysis
- An examination of how a model result responds to changed inputs or assumptions without treating one scenario as a guaranteed forecast.