CAA Associate Actuary (China) key terms

The probability of an event within a specified conditioning situation, calculated using a compatible event definition and nonzero conditioning probability.

A probability assigned before the particular evidence used for an update, which remains part of the posterior calculation.

An updated probability combining the prior weights and the likelihood of the observed evidence under the stated model.

A probability-weighted average of possible outcomes, which is neither a guaranteed individual result nor the maximum possible loss.

A measure of squared dispersion around a mean whose population or sample definition determines the appropriate denominator.

A measure of dispersion in the original variable units obtained as the square root of the stated variance.

A measure of the sampling variability of an estimator under a stated sampling design or probabilistic model.

An interval produced by a procedure with a stated coverage property under its assumptions, rather than a guarantee for every realized interval.

A probability of results at least as incompatible with the specified null model by the chosen test statistic, not the probability that the null is true.

A systematic difference related to selection or coverage that is not automatically removed by increasing the number of responses.

A design sampling within defined groups of the population, with allocation and analysis appropriate to the population and objective.

A design selecting groups of units, whose dependence and group structure need consideration in estimation and uncertainty calculations.

A model describing a conditional relationship among variables that does not by itself establish the effect of an intervention.

A summary of association between variables under its definition, distinguished from a demonstration that one variable causes the other.

A rate describing the actual accumulation factor over its stated period, which differs from a nominal conversion convention.

A quoted rate paired with a compounding frequency, requiring conversion before comparison with an effective rate for another period.

An instantaneous interest accumulation measure whose constant form produces an exponential model over the defined time basis.

A series of payments at the ends of the stated periods, distinguished from otherwise similar payments made at their beginnings.

A series of payments at the beginnings of the stated periods, with timing affecting its value relative to arrears payments.

A model describing survival and deaths for a defined cohort or population basis, rather than a prediction of each individual life.

A probability of death within a defined interval conditional on survival to its start under the stated life-table basis.

An amount expressed at a specified valuation date using a defined discount model and compatible timing assumptions.

A modeled value of future obligations less the relevant future receipts under the selected contract and valuation basis.

An examination of how a model result responds to changed inputs or assumptions without treating one scenario as a guaranteed forecast.