Diversifying an Over-Exploited Paddy Mandal
In a Nalgonda mandal, paddy occupies 9,200 of 12,000 hectares of cropped area. Free 24×7 farm power and assured MSP procurement have made paddy the default crop. Of 2,100 borewells, 31% failed or had to be deepened in the last three years; the groundwater department classifies the mandal as over-exploited. The canal irrigates only 1,400 hectares. The district has ₹18 crore for crop diversification and a target to cut paddy area by 25% in three years. Farmers say millets and pulses have no assured buyer, and last year 40% of the pigeon pea crop was damaged by unseasonal rain. Rice millers oppose any shift in procurement. The state wants quick results before the next election. Tenant farmers and women cultivators are largely unrecorded in land records.
1. Design a sequenced diversification package. What should be done first, and what should not be done?
Read the worked answer
Do not begin by withdrawing free power; that would transfer the entire risk to farmers and trigger resistance. Sequence the package. First, in the over-exploited blocks, run a 2,000 ha pilot in the coming kharif with a written package: assured procurement of millets and pulses through FPOs, a state price top-up if the market price falls below a floor, weather-index insurance, subsidised drip and seed, and a per-hectare diversification incentive paid in two tranches-after sowing and after verified water-saving. Second, register tenant farmers through a simple tenancy record or community attestation so that they are not excluded. Third, tie part of the incentive to demonstrated water saving measured at observation wells, not to the crop alone. Fourth, use Rythu Vedikas for demonstrations and let early adopters speak. Fifth, reform procurement in parallel: add millets to PDS and hostel meals, sign milling MoUs, and build two warehouses. Free power should be rationalised later, with feeder separation and smart meters, and only after alternatives work. The ₹18 crore is enough for a pilot, not the whole mandal; scale in year two based on results.
2. How should success be measured, and what risks could make the programme look successful while failing?
Read the worked answer
Success should be measured on four axes, not on paddy area alone: hydrology (observation-well levels in May and November, borewell failure rate), economics (net income per hectare, share of farmers above their previous income, debt), adoption (area diversified, number of FPOs with actual procurement rather than mere registration), and energy (kWh per hectare, subsidy outgo). Process indicators-timely payment of incentives, grievance resolution, inclusion of tenants and women-matter because a programme can hit its area target while excluding the poorest. Evaluate against a comparison mandal to separate weather effects from policy effects, and publish a dashboard. Risks to manage include distress sale if procurement fails, elite capture by large farmers, millers' resistance, and the temptation to declare success before one full crop cycle. If groundwater does not improve after two seasons, revise the package rather than blame farmers. The test is whether a farmer who diversifies is no worse off in the first year and better off by the third.