Empty biscuit shelf and 23 missing atta bags

Reorder level = (average daily sales × lead time) + safety stock = (18 × 4) + 30 = 102 packs. At the time of the review the stock is 40 packs, i.e. 2.2 days of cover against a 4-day lead time. A stock-out was arithmetically certain, and the only surprising thing is that it did not last longer than 5 days. Why the shelf still went empty despite a stated policy:

• The number existed only on paper. Without a bin card or a daily stock position, nobody compares 40 with 102. Reordering was triggered by seeing an empty shelf, which is already 4 days too late.
• Lead time is an average, not a promise. A partial delivery or a delayed truck at 4 days' coverage gives an instant gap; the review should use the longest recent lead time, not the best one.
• Stock may exist in the back room and simply not be issued - check the back-room trolley before blaming the supplier.
• Sales may have risen above 18 during a promotion or month-end, making the 102 stale. Action: a fixed weekly order day, a daily review of the top 50 SKUs against ROL, a simple bin card per SKU, and a rule that an ROL breach is acted on the same day it is seen.

Work from the largest, most mechanical explanation to the smallest, so suspicion is not aimed at staff before the paperwork is cleared.

1. A duplicate GRN. Book stock = opening + receipts − recorded sales − recorded write-offs. If one physical delivery was booked twice, book stock is overstated by a whole lot, and 23 bags could disappear on paper with nothing leaving the store. Check the supplier invoice, vehicle number, weighment slip and the signature on the duplicate GRN, and match it with the supplier's statement.
2. The 9 damaged bags. They are behind the fridge, unsold and unusable, but still counted in book stock. Any write-off not posted inflates the variance. That takes the unexplained figure down to about 14.
3. Loose atta billed on the "miscellaneous" button. Sales of loose atta are not reducing the 5 kg pack SKU, and the pack may also be opened for loose sale without a recorded issue. This is a system error, not a theft.
4. Counting error / stock in another location - recount with a second person and check the back room before concluding.
5. Pilferage or unrecorded credit sales - only after the first four are eliminated. Controls: two-person GRN with a receiver who does not place orders, bin cards for high-value SKUs, weekly physical counts on the top 20 SKUs, and a write-off register with manager approval posted the same day.

Hampers - the clock is the problem, not the stock. There are 28 days to best-before, in a month with low gifting demand, and no purchase order coming. Plan a markdown ladder with dates fixed in advance: for example full price now, 20% off at 21 days to expiry, 40% off at 14 days, bundle with a fast-moving SKU at 10 days, and a hard write-off date before the best-before date. Approach the supplier for a return or credit note early, while there is still time to negotiate; try corporate or institutional buyers and a documented donation before expiry. Record every markdown in the system so the margin loss is visible, and never alter or over-label the best-before date. Damaged atta - separate the stock from the story. Move the 9 bags to a marked quarantine area away from sale stock, record them in the damage register with quantity, reason, date and the name of the person reporting, and get manager approval. They must not be sold, and must not be tipped into the loose bins - that is the single most common way a damaged bag becomes a customer complaint. Destroy or dispose through the approved route and post the write-off the same day so book stock matches physical stock. Both plans share one principle: the loss is decided by the manager and recorded, never absorbed silently by the stock figure.