A Supermarket, an Access Road and a Shrinking Town
The town of Asahi (population 19,000, of whom 38% are 65 or older) has one bus route with five round trips a day. A supermarket chain wants to build a store on farmland 2 km from the town centre, next to a bypass, and asks the town to build an access road costing about 480 million yen. The town's annual budget is 9.6 billion yen, and its road maintenance account is already 300 million yen short each year. Shops in the central shopping street, many run by people over 70, oppose the plan. A town survey found that 62% of all respondents want the store, but among respondents aged 75 and over only 41% do; 45% of households with a member aged 75 or over have no car. Turnout in the last town assembly election was 44%. The mayor supports the plan and says, "The majority want it, so the assembly should approve it." A citizens' group is demanding a referendum.
1. Before the vote, which points should assembly members check? Name the questions they should ask and say what kind of evidence each needs.
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They should separate the numbers they already have from the claims that still need testing.
- Cost and who pays: 480 million yen is about 5% of one year's budget, and the road must also be maintained for decades. With a 300 million yen shortfall already, the assembly should ask what will be cut, and get a multi-year estimate, not just the construction figure.
- Whether the survey is trustworthy: how many residents were surveyed and how they were chosen? If the response rate was low or the sample skewed, 62% may not represent the town.
- Who bears the burden: residents aged 75 and over are the group least in favour (41%), and 45% of such households have no car. A bypass store may be unreachable for them unless the bus route is changed, which costs more money.
- Alternatives and rules: a town-centre site, mobile sales, or a bus service, plus whether farmland may be converted.
Only then can the assembly vote on evidence rather than on the mayor's summary.
2. Evaluate the mayor's statement: "The majority want it, so the assembly should approve it."
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The statement treats majority rule as the whole of democracy, but it is only a decision procedure.
The 62% comes from a survey, not an election, and a survey has no turnout requirement and may not represent residents equally. Even if the majority genuinely wants the store, the assembly exists to deliberate on cost, legality and the effect on those who will bear the burden - here, older residents without cars, who are the least supportive group. Protecting a minority's access to daily shopping is part of the assembly's job, not an obstacle to it.
A referendum is not automatically better either: its turnout may be low (the last election drew 44%), the question is usually a blunt yes or no, and it costs money. A better decision would approve the store only with conditions - a bus route serving the bypass, or support for the central shopping street.
3. What data would you collect to estimate the effect of the plan on elderly residents with no car?
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The aim is to find out how many people would lose practical access to food, and what fixing it would cost.
Useful items:
- the number and location of households with a member aged 75 or over and no car, by district, from resident records;
- how those households shop now - family lifts, delivery vans, the town bus - from a short targeted survey, since general surveys under-sample them;
- the present bus timetable and whether any route passes the bypass site;
- the cost of extending the route or adding a community bus, to compare with the 480 million yen road;
- the likely effect on the central shopping street, including how many shops would close, since a closure removes the nearest option for people who cannot travel.
With these figures the assembly could judge whether the road plus a bus service is worth its cost.