Adaptive Planning and Estimation
This domain tests how you plan and estimate when scope and detail are uncertain. Expect rolling-wave planning, story mapping, relative estimation, velocity ranges, capacity, the cone of uncertainty, and forecast versus commitment.
Core rules
- Plan at multiple horizons: release, iteration, and daily. Re-plan at each horizon using what you learned.
- Estimate relatively with points or T-shirt sizes, and forecast from observed throughput. Do not convert points to hours for commitments.
- Use a range, not a single number. Velocity is a planning input, not a productivity score.
- Capacity changes: holidays, support load, onboarding, and part-time allocation reduce available effort.
- Separate forecast from commitment. A commitment is a scope and date trade-off decision; a forecast is an evidence-based expectation.
Worked example
A team's recent velocities are 40, 44, 52, and 48 points. The next iteration has two public holidays and one new hire. The naive forecast is the average, 46. Reasoning: use the lower end of the range and adjust for capacity, roughly 40 points minus holiday effect, say 32 to 36. Present a range and an assumption list. If the sponsor demands fixed scope, make the trade-off explicit: reduce scope, move the date, or accept higher risk.
Traps
Committing to the average velocity; estimating in hours and calling it agile; ignoring capacity; promising fixed scope and date with no trade-off; treating story points as comparable across teams; planning once and never re-planning.