Adaptive Planning
Plan at multiple horizons
Adaptive planning uses rolling-wave planning and progressive elaboration: the near term is detailed, the far term is coarse, and the plan is refined every iteration. Release plans are forecasts, not commitments - express them as a range. Inside the iteration, timeboxing and a stable sprint goal protect focus; scope flexes when new information arrives, and that negotiation is explicit, not silent.
Estimating and forecasting
Understand relative estimation with story points, planning poker, affinity estimating and wideband Delphi, and why ideal days are less durable across a team. Velocity is a historical measure of delivered points per iteration; capacity adjusts it for holidays and absences. Refine the backlog continuously and apply a Definition of Ready before pulling work in. Burn-down charts show work remaining; burn-up charts show scope and completed work together; cumulative flow diagrams expose WIP and cycle time. Little's Law (average items in progress divided by throughput gives cycle time) explains why WIP limits accelerate delivery.
Worked example
Last four sprints delivered 22, 20, 24 and 18 points. Use the range 18–24, not the average alone. Remaining backlog of 210 points therefore needs about 9–12 sprints. Communicate the range and the assumptions behind it.
Traps
Promising a fixed scope and date early; treating velocity as a productivity target; hiding contingency as padding; confusing burn-down with burn-up; changing sprint scope without negotiating with the product owner.
Rule of thumb: fix time and quality, flex scope; always present forecasts as ranges with stated confidence.