Mela Deployment: Calculating the Shortfall
You are the constable assisting the SHO for a three-day mela expected to draw 18,000 visitors each day. From past duty, 12 constables can manage 9,000 visitors during an 8-hour shift. Every constable works one 8-hour shift per day. The station has 42 constables, but 6 are on sanctioned leave. Besides crowd management, the plan needs fixed posts: 3 constables at each of the two entry gates, 2 at the women's help desk, 2 at the CCTV room, and 4 for traffic. The SHO wants a 20% reserve over the total operational strength. On the third day, a religious procession is expected to raise attendance by 25%. Prepare a short deployment note: calculate the requirement for day 1 and day 3, compare it with availability, and state how many additional personnel you will request and for which day.
1. Calculate the total constable requirement for day 1 and the shortfall against available strength. Show every step.
Read the worked answer
Crowd-management strength: 18,000 ÷ 9,000 = 2 units; 2 × 12 = 24 constables.
Fixed posts: two gates at 3 each = 6; women's desk = 2; CCTV = 2; traffic = 4; total fixed = 14.
Operational total = 24 + 14 = 38.
Reserve = 20% of 38 = 7.6. Since a person cannot be fractional and the reserve must not be under-provided, round up to 8.
Total requirement = 46.
Available = 42 − 6 = 36.
Shortfall = 46 − 36 = 10.
So request 10 additional constables for day 1. The key judgment is to calculate the reserve on the total operational strength, not just on crowd management, because fixed posts also need relief and unexpected absences must be covered.
2. Calculate day 3 and explain how you would prioritise if only 10 extra personnel are sanctioned for all three days.
Read the worked answer
Day 3 visitors: 18,000 × 1.25 = 22,500. Crowd management: 22,500 ÷ 9,000 = 2.5 units; 2.5 × 12 = 30. Fixed posts remain 14. Operational = 44. Reserve = 20% of 44 = 8.8, rounded up to 9. Total = 53. Available = 36, so shortfall = 17.
If only 10 additional personnel are sanctioned for all three days, day 1 is covered exactly, but day 3 is short by 7. Prioritise: keep both entry gates, the women's desk and CCTV fully staffed; ask the mela committee for trained volunteers only for queue and parking guidance, not for law-and-order; request 7 from district reserve for day 3; if unavailable, reduce the traffic post from 4 to 2 and use barricades, but do not cut the 20% reserve below the SHO's written approval. Record the risk in the deployment order so the decision is transparent.