When a Demonstration Fails: Diagnosing Non-Adoption
A block extension team in the coastal plains laid out 20 cluster demonstrations of a newly released short-duration paddy variety on 25 farmers' fields in one season. Canal release was delayed by 25 days, so every demonstration plot was transplanted late. The farmer-practice plots, chosen by the farmers themselves, happened to lie on slightly higher ground and were transplanted on time. Demonstration plots received the recommended 80 kg N/ha in three splits; the farmers' own plots received 60 kg N/ha. Four days of continuous rain mid-season submerged the demonstration plots but not the comparison plots. At harvest the demonstrations averaged 4.1 t/ha against 4.6 t/ha in the farmers' plots; the variety's zonal trial yield is 5.2 t/ha. Only 3 of the 25 farmers say they will grow it again. The block agriculture officer has noted: "Variety has failed here. Repeat demonstrations with more farmers next year."
1. Is the officer's conclusion supported by the data? Separate what the trial shows from what it does not.
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The conclusion is not supported. The comparison is confounded on at least four counts at once: date of transplanting (25 days late throughout the demonstrations), land elevation and hence submergence, nitrogen dose, and selection of the check plots by the farmers themselves rather than by the team. Each of these affects yield independently; together they make genotype the least likely explanation for a 0.5 t/ha gap.
The 4.6 t/ha in farmers' plots versus 5.2 t/ha in zonal trials is an ordinary on-station versus on-farm gap, not evidence of failure. A short-duration variety transplanted 25 days late is pushed out of its intended photoperiod and temperature window, which by itself can cost more than 0.5 t/ha.
What the season legitimately shows: the variety can yield 4.1 t/ha under late transplanting and a submergence event, and three farmers saw enough to want it again. Repeating demonstrations with more farmers, without fixing the design, would only multiply an invalid result.
2. Redesign the demonstration so that next season answers a real question. Specify plots, checks, records and the measure of success.
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Change the unit of comparison from variety versus farmer practice to a paired plot on the same field, same date, same nutrition, same water - a result demonstration with a genuine check.
Design: in each of 6 villages, select 3 farmers on comparable land, one plot each, split into two halves - new variety and the farmer's current variety - with a bund between. Both halves transplanted on the same day by the same labour group, both at 80 kg N/ha in three splits, and one unsprayed strip left in each half as a pest nursery. Record transplanting date, rainfall, submergence days and pest scores on a one-page sheet, not in memory.
If delayed canal release is the reality of this block, run a second small set deliberately late to test the variety under that condition rather than pretending it will not recur. Add one method demonstration on seed treatment and one field day at grain filling. Measure success by (a) recorded yield in both halves with the difference and its consistency, (b) number of farmers who book seed, and (c) actual area sown to the variety next season, verified from the seed dealer's register.
3. How would you handle the 22 farmers who have turned away, and what would you say to the three who still want the variety?
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Meet them before the next season and concede the point publicly: the plots were transplanted late and were drowned, so the demonstration did not test the variety fairly. Farmers accept an honest error; they do not accept a claim that contradicts what they saw in their own village.
Then use the three willing farmers as the entry point. Ask them to keep a small strip of the variety beside their existing variety next season and to show it to neighbours at grain filling - a farmer's border strip carries more weight than a departmental plot. Arrange a field visit to a nearby village where the variety was transplanted on time, if one exists.
Correct the record formally: write a one-page note for the panchayat and the Krishi Vigyan Kendra on what went wrong with the layout, so the failure is not later quoted as proof that the variety is unfit. Finally, do not over-promise yield; present the variety as an option that shortens the season and saves one irrigation, with the yield question still open.