The Census and the Steppe
A provincial government is planning mobile health clinics for herder families. Data show the province has 18,000 people, of whom 4,500 live in the provincial capital and the rest are spread across the steppe. Herder households move seasonally, and 30% of rural households have no fixed address. The clinic budget covers four visits per year to each of 12 districts. A planner argues clinics should be based only in the capital because "that is where the people are." A second planner argues for district-level mobile units. The meeting must decide using the data.
1. Use the population figures to evaluate the first planner's claim that "the capital is where the people are."
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The capital holds 4,500 of 18,000 people = 25%. The remaining 75% (13,500 people) live outside the capital, spread across the steppe. The claim is therefore misleading: the capital has the largest single concentration, but three-quarters of the population is rural. A capital-only clinic would serve at most a quarter of the population and would leave the majority - including the 30% of rural households with no fixed address - without planned access. The data support a rural-focused or district-based model, not a capital-only one.
2. Calculate the number of rural households without a fixed address if the average rural household has 4 people, and explain why this matters for clinic planning.
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Rural population = 18,000 − 4,500 = 13,500. At 4 people per household, rural households ≈ 13,500 / 4 = 3,375. Of these, 30% have no fixed address: 0.30 × 3,375 ≈ 1,013 households (about 4,050 people). This matters because fixed-location clinics cannot reach them by address. Planning must use seasonal movement patterns, district gathering points, or scheduled mobile routes rather than assuming a home address. The figure also shows the scale: roughly 4,000 people cannot be served by a static clinic.
3. The budget allows four visits per year to each of 12 districts. Propose how to allocate visits and justify your choice with the data.
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A defensible allocation: weight visits by rural population and by the share without fixed address, not equally. Since 75% of people are rural and ~30% of rural households are mobile, districts with more mobile households need more frequent or better-timed visits (e.g., at seasonal gathering points). One reasonable plan: 12 districts × 4 visits = 48 visits per year; give the highest-mobility districts 6 visits and lower-mobility districts 2–3, keeping the total at 48. Justification: equal allocation ignores the uneven distribution of need shown by the data. The capital can be served by a fixed clinic, freeing mobile visits for rural districts. The plan should be reviewed after one year using attendance data.