Two Explanations for the First Republic's Declaration
In May 1918, Armenian forces fought Ottoman troops near Sardarapat, Bash-Aparan, and Karakilisa. On 28 May 1918, the Armenian National Council in Tbilisi declared the First Republic of Armenia. On 4 June 1918, the Treaty of Batum imposed severe territorial losses. Two students write about why the republic was declared. Excerpt A: 'The declaration was a military necessity: without a state, the front could not be supplied or represented at peace talks.' Excerpt B: 'The declaration fulfilled a long political aspiration; the battles only made the timing possible.' A third student concludes: 'The declaration came after the battles, so the battles caused the declaration.' The class must judge which claims are supported by the timeline and which need more evidence.
1. Identify the main factor each excerpt emphasizes. Then evaluate the third student's causal claim using the timeline: what does the sequence support, and what does it not prove?
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Excerpt A emphasizes immediate military and diplomatic necessity: a state was needed to supply the front and to be represented in peace talks. Excerpt B emphasizes a long-term political aspiration, with the battles acting as a trigger that made the timing possible.
The third student's claim is a post hoc inference. The timeline shows close sequence - battles in May, declaration on 28 May, Treaty of Batum on 4 June - but sequence alone does not prove causation. The declaration occurred while the Battle of Sardarapat (21–29 May) was still underway, not simply after it. To establish causation, the class would need evidence about the National Council's deliberations, such as minutes, correspondence, or speeches.
2. Which excerpt better explains why the declaration happened in May 1918 rather than, say, in 1917? Justify using one date from the timeline.
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Excerpt A better explains the timing in May 1918. It links the declaration to the immediate military crisis and to the need for representation at peace talks; the Treaty of Batum on 4 June shows that a settlement was imminent. Excerpt B explains why Armenian statehood was wanted at all, but a long-term aspiration does not explain why the declaration came in May 1918 rather than in 1917. The battles and the diplomatic emergency supply the timing mechanism.
3. Write one sentence that both excerpts could support without contradiction. Then name one piece of evidence that would help decide between them.
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Both excerpts can support: 'The battles created an urgent context in which the Armenian National Council declared the First Republic on 28 May 1918, while the longer-term goal of Armenian statehood shaped that decision.'
Evidence that would help decide between them: minutes or records of the Armenian National Council's meetings, letters between council members, or speeches from May 1918. These would show whether the decision was argued mainly in military terms, in terms of national aspiration, or both.