Moving the Only Helicopter: A One-Page Decision Memo
Following nine deaths in five years around outer islands, the regional coast guard is considering moving its only search-and-rescue helicopter from the main port to a forward base. Five-year data: 412 SAR cases; 61% of outer-island cases reached within 30 minutes from the main port; median 47 minutes; the forward base would cut that to 24 minutes but raise main-port response from 12 to 22 minutes, where 63% of all cases occur. The helicopter is unavailable 22% of days because of weather and maintenance. The move costs 1.8 billion KRW, requires eight new staff, and the local assembly has passed a resolution supporting it. Fishermen's associations support it; the port workers' union opposes it. Two public hearings are scheduled. The commissioner asks for a one-page decision memo with a recommendation.
1. State a thesis and three decision criteria, and explain how the criteria should be weighted.
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Thesis: Recommend a 12-month pilot relocation of the helicopter to the forward base, with a fast rescue boat retained at the main port and a monthly review, because the data suggest a large reduction in the longest outer-island responses at an acceptable cost-but only if availability and main-port coverage are protected. Criteria: (1) expected reduction in death and serious injury, not average response time; (2) net change in response capability across all cases; (3) cost, staffing and weather feasibility. Weight: do not count cases equally. Weight each case by severity and by the chance that minutes matter (drowning, hypothermia, heart attack). A 23-minute gain on a remote case may be worth more than a 10-minute loss near the port, where boats and other assets are dense. Require a baseline and a review trigger.
2. Give the strongest counterargument to relocation and rebut it using the data.
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Strongest counterargument: 63% of cases occur near the main port, and adding 10 minutes there affects more people than the 23-minute gain on the outer islands; with the helicopter unavailable 22% of days, the forward base may not deliver. The nine deaths may reflect lack of nearby vessels, not helicopter time-a confounding factor. Rebuttal: the decision should turn on severity-weighted outcomes, not raw case counts. Main-port cases already have a 12-minute response and surface assets; outer-island cases have a 47-minute median and fewer alternatives, so the marginal minute is more valuable there. The pilot design should keep a backup asset at the main port, use the fast rescue boat, and measure door-to-patient time; if main-port outcomes worsen, end the pilot. That is a testable compromise, not a leap.
3. Identify the flaw in 'If we do not relocate, more fishermen will die' and rewrite it.
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Flaw: 'If we do not relocate, more fishermen will die' is a false dilemma plus an appeal to emotion. It assumes relocation is the only effective measure and that the deaths are caused by the current base, when the data are correlational and confounded by weather, vessel traffic and availability. Rewrite: 'Relocating the helicopter may reduce median outer-island response time from 47 to 24 minutes. Because the nine deaths occurred in a context of long response times and limited surface assets, a controlled pilot should test whether the relocation reduces severity-weighted response time without worsening main-port outcomes.'