Cedar Ridge: 210 Visits, 14 Leases, and Two Bad Options
Cedar Ridge is a 240-unit community at 91% occupancy with 18 leases expiring in the next 60 days. Last month the office logged 210 visits (walk-ins plus appointments), took 24 applications, and moved in 14 residents. Guest cards were completed on about 60% of visits, but the team's own follow-up log shows only about a third of those cards received a call or email within 48 hours. The two-bedroom asking rent is $1,425. The owner has approved either a $50 rent reduction or one month free on a 13-month lease, and wants to know why the community keeps 'losing leases.' You have been asked to present a plan at Friday's meeting.
1. Using the numbers given, where in the leasing funnel is the largest loss, and what would you verify before recommending any pricing action?
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Run the funnel first.
| Step | Count | Conversion |
|---|---|---|
| Visits | 210 | - |
| Applications | 24 | 11.4% visit-to-app |
| Move-ins | 14 | 58% app-to-lease |
| Visits per lease | 15 | - |
The app-to-lease figure (58%) is in a normal range - some applicants get declined, some withdraw, some lose the unit to a faster applicant. The 11.4% visit-to-application rate is the weak link, and it lines up with the follow-up data: 60% card capture x 33% timely follow-up means roughly 20% of visitors get any follow-up at all. About 84 visitors last month left with no usable card or no contact.
Verify before you price:
- Are the 210 visits unique, or are repeat visits inflating traffic?
- Pull the 10 applications that did not become leases: screened out, withdrew, or lost the unit? Each answer points somewhere different.
- Compare what visitors asked for against what is actually vacant. If the vacancy is concentrated in a floor plan nobody toured, that is a product problem, not a price problem.
- Mystery-shop two tours. A weak tour produces weak applications no matter the rent.
- Spot-check 10 guest cards against the CRM to confirm the follow-up log is real and not just under-entered.
The conclusion to bring to Friday: a $50 cut across the rent roll costs real NOI and will not fix a follow-up failure. Traffic is not the shortage - conversion after the tour is.
2. Compare the two approved concessions on effective rent and recommend one, with reasoning.
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Do the math on the full term, not the headline.
- Full-price 13-month value: $1,425 x 13 = $18,525
- One month free, 13-month lease: resident pays $1,425 x 12 = $17,100, amortized to $1,315.38/month
- $50 reduction, 13-month lease: $1,375 x 13 = $17,875, amortized to $1,375.00/month
So the free month is the deeper discount - about $59.62/month more, or $775 more over the term - even though the $50 cut feels like the bigger giveaway on paper.
Why the free month is still usually the better tool:
- It leaves the $1,425 contract rent intact, which protects the rent roll, the comps you report, and the base for next year's percentage increase.
- A $50 reduction is permanent and compounds: every future renewal percentage is calculated off the lower number, and it is very hard to claw back.
- Concessions can be given a defined expiration date; a price cut becomes the new asking rent in the market's eyes.
Recommendation: hold asking rent, fix follow-up, and if a concession is genuinely needed, apply a time-limited one-month free to the specific floor plan that is lagging - with a term that expires in a strong leasing month - rather than across the board. Never stack a concession on top of a price cut.
3. Eighteen leases expire in the next 60 days. What is your renewal priority and what should you avoid?
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Size the exposure. 240 units x 91% = roughly 218 occupied, 22 vacant. Eighteen expirations is about 8% of the rent roll. If 25–30% do not renew, that is 4–5 additional vacancies, pushing you toward 26–27 vacant units - around 89% - right as the expirations land.
Priority order:
- Make personal contact with all 18 within five business days, not at the 30-day mark. Early contact is the single strongest renewal lever.
- Segment by risk: open work orders, late payments in the last 12 months, tenure under 18 months, prior noise or neighbor complaints, and how far below market their current rent sits.
- Clear every open work order on those units before the renewal offer is presented. A resident with a three-week-old repair is not receptive to a rent increase.
- Get the owner to approve a written renewal matrix up front so the number is consistent and not negotiated unit by unit in the room.
Avoid: reflexively offering renewal concessions to protect occupancy. Word travels between residents, and a concession granted to the first three renewals becomes the expectation for the other fifteen. Also avoid letting the 60-day window do the work for you - at 60 days you still have leverage; at 20 days you do not.